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20% increase in three weeks!

The order a shortened trading day Christmas week are encouraging gains. Four weeks of the upward trend has now already. Thus, the market is technically overbought and at least a short break should not be surprising. The end of this bull market that began in March 2009, is still not in sight. In 2011 a good year. However, I recommend some caution when Slber and gold. A correction of 10% to 15% after the strong price increase is justified. Even when oil I stay cautious, although the first snow storm could push on the northeast coast of America this year, the price level a bit. The euro is almost back to within its range of $ 1.20 to $ 1.30 and so worth buying. The last week of the year will be no large price gains. The annual result is already very impressive!

The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter at 2.6%, only slightly more than the second projection indicated a month ago. Analysts had expected a revised growth rate of 3%. While stocks were higher than originally estimated , was the general demand (final sales) is somewhat lower. Year on year growth was at 3.2% (green arrow). In the second quarter of 2009 it had fallen by 4% (red arrow). The most severe recession (red shading) in over 70 years ended in mid-2009: be expanding the U.S. economy (blue shading). The danger of renewed recession is not in the near future. The growth will be in 2010 at the 3% mark. A similar result is possible in 2011.




corporate profits in the third quarter with $ 1,416 billion, slightly weaker than estimated a month ago, but this remains a record level (green arrow). Compared with the previous year, this represents an improvement of over 27% incl in the second Quarter, the increase was still nearly 39%. In early 2009 the profits of 50% (red arrow) were dropped before the subsequent recovery began. U.S. companies currently show the highest cash position in history.




The American consumer has for over a year (blue shading) spending more money. Despite the high unemployment rate of almost 10% of the atmosphere has improved in the population. The recession of 2008/2009 (red shading) is overcome. From the low end of 2008 (red arrow), when the real spending fell by over 2% on last year, the increase is now around 2.8% (green arrow). The American consumer thus contributes to the overall growth in again.





December was previously an excellent month for financials and construction stocks. Bank of America and KB Home - both titles have been recommended to me - submitted by 23 Around 20% in December and suggested that the S & P 500 significantly, although this index has a very good December so far result of almost seven percent increase. This confirms that the bull market is far from over.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will be available on Monday 3 January 2011.

Heiko Thieme

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Schummeleien.

What we have pages and how many and what we can do it. I look at the contents and forms and manifestations, and read and watch and get caught, and too often but then I wonder: Third-party content again and again. Someone writes and is praised and is on TV and then stumbles but in his own book and in their own words and in their own justification Intellectual property and the boundaries of a blogosphere and misinterpretation. Newspapers report on approaches of a Cyber Wars and I think: The name sounds like Stuxnet Skynet and is perhaps still a concept at some point. A turning point, perhaps, or a trigger of something. In commercials, the intelligence of machines required and I still laugh every time at the thought of the X-ray picture of the future people in the wonderful movie Wall-E and fear me but every time the thought of HAL and on the day when my blog me not allowed to edit a text, and I finally merhmals attempt Cheating accused.

We are afraid and we create fear: pasting our machines with antivirus programs and can not trust e-mail more and no appendix and no sbahn. Dangerous young people to gather on streets and sidewalks and take a nothing and have to put up with hormones and adrenaline. We are looking for control, but can not quite grasp what the shame and take upon ourselves to be frisked at airports and X-rayed. What else does and what faith freedom. What is the meaning and promise of what rules. Wars always start and constantly in the mind. Out of greed or the simple way. We do a lot, because we can: A friend told me about the battles a lamb and it has pictures on his display, interspersed with family members are happy to see. He laughs at me and was right: I buy meat at the butcher or supermarket or wherever I am most comfortable and eat it regularly and would not kill the animal and then sit still in amazement before the screen. But a guilty conscience, it is beyond rare. Resignation and resilience of scale and regularity and by flooding and to walk towards the entropy will be prosecuted.

We are tired and exhausted and want to let others do it. Machine preferably.

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Merry Christmas

The bull market continues! Although 2010 was a volatile but very successful trading year. The Dow Jones index reached in the week before Christmas my forecast of 11,500 by year end and can get something else. The Dax filled my annual forecast of 7,000 on 7 December and tested that level in the last week successfully. Again, there is still a residual potential by year end. In this shortened Christmas week can be interrupted the three-week uptrend on Wall Street temporarily, before it comes to year-end rally.

nerves are required in the coming year from investors. Part of my forecasts and recommendations are available on the Christmas card. More details will follow in the next blog. My interview of 15-DAF December from the trading floor is concerned with the outlook for 2011. The (click on) this link is:

http://www.daf.fm/video/heiko- Thieme-dax-takes-8000-points-in- next year-50140604- DE0008469008.html

The price of gold is happening right now a little hard to keep the $ 1,400 mark. In silver, the $ 30 level is an obstacle. An early consolidation of 5% to 10% or even correction of 10% to 15% would not be surprising. Too much euphoria at the time of these precious metals. The $ 1,200 mark for gold should consider, however. The potential for 2011 is up to the $ 1,550 mark. In silver, the percentage price risk is minus 30% and the potential for $ 35 per ounce.

points since mid-year of robust monthly retail improvements (green shading) based on an economic growth of 3% in the 4th Quarter suggest. Part of this increase was due in November but at the price increases for gasoline and food prices. Compared with the previous year has the retail sales growth of nearly 8% (green arrows). This is a significant recovery since the lows (red arrow) during the recession in the second half of 2008 (red shading) set the retail under enormous pressure.

consumer prices have developed this year, generally speaking, very moderate. The consumer price index is well below the interest to the Federal Reserve two-percent mark (green line). While the overall rate is just over one percent, the core rate is non-energy costs and food prices on only 0.7% over the previous year. The risk of deflation - a decline below the zero line (blue line) - is scarcely exist, although this was temporarily the case in 2009, even as the overall rate to minus two percent (blue arrow) was taken after a year before the increase of five percent (red arrow) was. Also for 2011, I expect no marked inflation risk, although there will be more volatile on a monthly basis. The central bank can thus continue its low interest rate policy.

Stocks of crude oil have been a few weeks, came back clear (red arrow). This is due mainly to lower imports and a rising consumption. Total time for more oil is produced globally, than is consumed. Thus, the recent price rise is not the $ 90 mark fundamental reasons justified, but is based on speculation. In the coming year, oil prices will be subject to significant fluctuations, which can even the $ 100 mark temporarily be exceeded. However, I also expect a further price fall below $ 75, then what is a buy opportunity.

The construction sector is in two years to show in a valley bottom (red shading), with no improvement trend. The mortgage crisis will continue also next year. After building value lost over 80% from their highs since 2005, this sector is interesting in two to three years term. However, such investment is suitable only for patient investors

TM = Toyota, DBK = German bank, Commerzbank CBK =; EOAN = E.on, CSCO = Cisco Systems, PFE = Pfizer

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 27 December.

Heiko Thieme

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DAF interview

To my interview straight from the New Yorker exchange with Caroline Scherr visible from DAF, on the headline - click - DAF interview.

further assessments and Featured on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 20 December.

Heiko Thieme

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using traditions to keep us warm inside.

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addition

This week there were new highs for the year at many exchanges in the world. 2010 will go down in history as the stock market a good, albeit volatile year. The Dax has reached my full-year target of 7,000 and still has no signs of fatigue. The Dow Jones index is over 9% since the beginning of the beginning. Anyone who followed my advice in early July, when the Dow Jones 9700 had fallen by early Christmas shopping and I spoke in the summer, was even able to get twice as much. The residual potential end of the year as an addition to consider.

The silver is an increase of almost 70% of the undisputed winner of the year, followed by gold. Should be run after those prices are not. There will always be breaks, allow a purchase at a lower level. Patience is necessary for that purpose. During the oil I remain skeptical, despite many positive votes.

stands this week, the U.S. economy at the center, as many statistics published here via be. The upward trend in the stock markets can continue it.

The oil price could not exceed the $ 90 mark during the week successful. The economic demand is not strong enough to justify such a price level at the time. The Arctic cold snap in the Midwest over the weekend may again lead to an attempt at that level.

was in this year's trading range primarily in the oil between $ 70 and $ 83 per barrel (blue and red line). Only occasionally (red and blue circle), there was a short below the blue and crossing the red line. In the coming weeks I expect a test of the recent upward trend (rising green line), with the current price is just above the horizontal green line.

Who within the range of $ 70 to $ 83 active acting came at an increase of at least 60% since the beginning. Who had the courage to act even short positions in addition, was even a doubling, but is now sweating and has to bring prices down hope in the bandwidth.

was On the bond market in early October, with almost 2.4% for the 10-year government bonds lowest yields this year (red arrow). In early April, the yields have risen to almost 4% (green arrow). Only with a yield of 4.5% government bonds are attractive again. This level will be next year but achieved little. Therefore, government bonds remain provisionally uninteresting.

Obama currently has no good cards. Over 50% of the U.S. population today feel economically worse off than two years ago, shortly before he took office. For two-thirds of the respondents, the U.S. policy is moving in the wrong direction. Only 12% plan for Christmas this time spend more than last year. Obama and retailers are sweating on Christmas.

initial applications for unemployment benefits in December dropped to the level of August 2008 (green line). This indicates general pointed out that it in the U.S. labor market comes to a gradual relaxation. The question remains as to whether the unemployment rate will also fall term.

The unemployment rate remains a problem in the United States. Just to keep only the current level of 9.8%, need each month 150,000 new jobs will be created (white line). In the past 20 years there was only once a month (green arrow, September 1997), where well over 400,000 new jobs were created. January 2009 (red arrow), assumed office of President Obama, was with more than 800,000 jobs lost in the worst by far month.

This table shows how difficult it will be for President Obama, reduce unemployment rates significantly until his re-election in two years. To get to 5% from 9.8% currently, would each month 400,000 new jobs. This is impossible from a historical perspective. With 200,000 new jobs a month it takes a full 12 years to get to the 5% mark, which means full employment. Obama faces a huge challenge in the next two years. With the labor market, he can not win his re-election.

private incomes in the United States from 1979 to 2007 (recent data are not yet before) developed significantly different. The bottom fifth (dark blue line) of households has seen a net increase in income from a modest 16%. Even the middle class (light blue line) may be an increase of 25% in 28 years hardly satisfied. The situation is different in the top fifth. There was almost a doubling. Stunningly, however, the improvement of over 280% in the top 1% of households. This discrepancy in income development represents America to a crucial test. The gap between rich and poor is too large. However, overlooked in these statistics that there is at the top earners to frequent change. The founders of Google and Facebook, for example, had 15 years ago no assets and were even partially in its infancy. Now they are among the billionaires.

The mood among U.S. consumers has improved again since two months after it first to a was four months of stagnation (red shading) arrived. The present level was in the past three years exceeded a few times (green line). The lows during that period were seen in mid-2008 to February 2009 (three red arrows). A rising consumer sentiment is good for general economic development.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline, which has existed for 24 years.

Heiko Thieme

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Assignment #9

Draw a constellation from someone's (my own) freckles.

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Christmas rally

The last three trading days in November, "ruined" the monthly gain in Wall Street. However, made the first three days of December to November and totally up for that loss contributed significantly to the overall weekly winner. Thus the Christmas rally has officially begun. The Dax will test the 7,000 mark in the coming days and may exceed my previous annual target even a little. The Dow Jones will reach a new high of at least 11 500 and that this can increase a little.

The euro will be the only loser in the table above (red arrow) this year, although it can still be a slight improvement here. The annual winner is also now fixed (green arrow) and is the silver with an increase of over 70%. However, one could achieve a similar victory in a special high value within the past three weeks, the 12th at our Investment seminar in early November Speyer presented itself! More on the hotline.

The oil price is speculative buying pushed further upward. Here I am, however, only audience, I still expect a selling pressure in the coming months.

were the U.S. labor market data for November, with only 39 000 new jobs - they had expected 168 000 - well below expectations. Since June (yellow shading) were 55,000 jobs lost after were created in the first five months over a million jobs. The main reason for the original job increase (blue shading) based on a national survey, but only created temporary jobs. This was on my blog at that time already noted critical. Since the beginning of 951 000 jobs were created after the previous two years - 2008 and 2009 - a total of nearly 8.4 million jobs (red shading) were lost. The unemployment rate rose in November to 9.8% and for 19 months on the 9% mark, which is the longest period in 62 years, since it is here on official statistics. Taking account in these statistics all willing to work and able to work, so the real unemployment rate rises to over 17%! The unemployment problem in the next year, and the U.S. economy, even if it had the previous year since August 2009 (red arrow) in the official statistics to a significant recovery (green arrow). The actual picture looks different.

American industry and services have been three months (green shading), a slight improvement. This is, at least from the statistics in the region out to Chicago. After the strong recovery (blue arrow) since the beginning of 2009, the business barometer from May to August this year had cooled somewhat. In the coming months must show whether this new growth momentum to be sustainable, as I believe it. As long as this business index above the 50 mark to expand the U.S. industry.

The housing market during the third quarter (pink shading) substantially weakened. This shows the statistics of the 20 largest urban regions in the United States. Originally scheduled this month statistics, only 10 cities Regions in private housing. After house prices had fallen by the end of 2008 (red arrow) from the previous year by 20%, it came to the middle of this year (blue arrow) to a positive recovery trend, which is interrupted since then. Growth for the overall economy from the construction industry not to expect the time being.

Despite the still high unemployment rate, consumer confidence has improved since September and is now back above the 54.1 critical mark of 50, indicating growth acceleration. In February 2009 (red Arrow) had reached its low point, consumer confidence in the recession phase. Retail sales were from September 2008 to October 2009 (pink shading) on the previous year. For a year (blue shading), it goes up again in retail. The Christmas season, on 26 November began officially has improvements over the previous year. move

productivity and unit labor costs opposite direction. Increasing productivity (light blue arrows) results in falling unit labor costs, a percentage decline in Productivity (red arrows) increased labor costs. The largest percentage decline in unit labor costs (green arrows) occurs if the productivity has the highest percentage increase. Unit labor costs are rising the most (purple arrows), when productivity shows the lowest percentage improvement.

more recommendations and analysis on the daily hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 13 December.

Heiko Thieme

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Christmas season opened

The day after Thanksgiving (Thanksgiving) began on Friday the Christmas season for retailers to officially. On Wall Street was trading on that day with very low turnover and low rates only until 13:00 clock. The shortened course of a week - on Thursday the stock markets were closed - brought up on the counter market slight negative numbers. Also, the Dax had a hard time to close in positive territory. Nevertheless, market players with the old annual yield to be satisfied.

The clear loser in the € (red arrows) was. The Ireland-crisis took their toll. However, the euro is still above its purchasing power parity of $ 1.25 and is far from weak. From $ 1.30 U.S. dollars to exchange positions again gradually in €.

the precious metals sector is the winner of the year, while silver is at the top (green arrow). The oil price has since recovered fully, although here I was maintaining my skepticism.

rose Corporate profits after tax to a record high of $ 1.427 trillion (green arrow) in the third quarter! Compared with the previous year this is an improvement of over 28% (blue arrow). End of 2008, profits fell 50% (red arrow) and were under $ 700 billion (yellow arrow). Although the improvement trend can not continue in the same form, further increases in profits in the fourth quarter are realistic.

The American consumer is a little more optimism in the Christmas season (green arrow). The retailers reported higher sales this weekend compared to last year. Economic growth can thus keep the 3% mark in short supply.

The auto sector has significant price improvement for a year. This benefited both the American Ford's shares and the German Volkswagen's share price. The Japanese car manufacturer Toyota is slightly down compared to its previous level, as there was came here to mass complaints. The current rate is therefore a chance to get started on 9-15 month view.

The Toyota shares I give a price potential of 20% - 30% until the first quarter of 2012. The purchase of yen level 3000-3400 is to be considered. The downward trend (red line) is clearly broken.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will be available on Monday, 6 December.

Heiko Thieme

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contrast



The third week of November provided a contrast, and was far more volatile than the end result that on Wall Street brought little change. Nervousness due to potential losses in the hundreds of billions of Irish banks was not only in Europe through the stock markets until mid-week under selling pressure. The Dow Jones fell below the 11,000 mark while the short term. This was a warning that the global financial crisis is not over. Provided for optimism then second week section General Motors with its successful return to the stock exchange. Like a phoenix from the ashes of the already significantly increased the offer price rose on the first trading day in some cases up to nine percent in the level before a certain degree of comfort began. The largest American stock offering has been so successfully placed. This is proof that government intervention sometimes make sense.

While gold prices continue to be consolidated, was already back in silver recovery a , after the price had been dropped within a week by 13%. The selling pressure in oil continued;. the $ 90 a barrel this year will hardly be achieved. Volatility will be with the precious metals sector and the oil in the coming months. The euro could reduce on weekly closing the massive selling pressure somewhat. A rapid recovery is expected, however, hardly.




A look back at the past 12 months shows that the 10,000 mark at the Dow Jones offered always a good entry level. This was recommended on my hotline and in this blog. I advised profit-taking in the spring, when the Dow crossed 11,000. Then it was up to the first mid-year correction since the beginning of this bull market by March 2009. Those who call for my Christmas purchases in July followed, can run the gains further, as we are in the strongest stock market phase of the year.




Dax, Dow Jones and NASDAQ have developed in parallel to each other this year, with the Dax and the counter market (NASDAQ) are almost equal (green circle). Taking into account dividend payments and the currency gain, the Dow Jones draws so the Dax same. The Japanese Nikkei is this year's losers (red circle), although even here since early September, a rally was, without the potential of this exploit. The bull market will continue in all four indices in the next year. When Dax even a new record is possible. This will be the Dow Jones before 2012, however the case.



inflation warnings are still inappropriate. Consumer prices are just above the one percent mark. The U.S. central bank is targeting the other hand, an inflation rate of two percent (green line) to . The core rate, without volatile food and energy costs, is even well below one percent. Despite low inflation, there is no risk of deflation. Since the middle of last year, the Price level of minus two percent (red arrow) is now recovered.




The capacity utilization rate has been stagnating for four months (green circle) to the 75% mark. With the start of the recession, the utilization rate came under considerable pressure from the end of 2007 (red arrow). The subsequent recovery (blue arrow) was however, been relatively modest. At low capacity utilization increases are difficult to enforce. This is one reason for continued low inflation in the next year.




In the private sector, the soil formation (yellow) is still ongoing. Although mortgage rates have dropped to a low point, remains the Bauinteresse from the past. The backlog of houses and apartments will be added until further. My Recommended in the construction sector - KB Home (KBH) - remains in place, even if this patient is necessary (see blog of 12 November).

This week is primarily of Thanksgiving (Thanksgiving), which takes place on the fourth Thursday in November, marked and dedicated to the family. Wednesday is considered the most important day of travel a year. Many market players are already left the office early to view in the family. On Thursday, the markets are closed. The common turkey dinner is the highlight of the week. On Friday the stock market is only open half a day. For retailers this Friday begins with the Christmas season. Department stores are already open from 3 clock in the morning (!). It is the most important shopping day of the year (black Friday).

Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on Monday, 29 November.



Heiko Thieme

policy of the U.S. central bank to YouTube communicate in English. suited to smile and think.