Saturday, October 30, 2010

How To Reset A Trane Furnace

Golden October



market players have every reason to celebrate. The October, often referred to as disaster months, was at his best this time. Which occurred at a distance three largest losses in the Dow Jones over the past 110 years in October, namely 1929 and 1987. Nevertheless, the October is better than its reputation. Of the 35 bull markets since 1900 began in October and seven more than in any other month. In general, October is the best month to start is in the stock market. This time, the Dow Jones, in October to three percent, while the-counter market (NASDAQ) even came to nearly twice as much. Also, the Dax was able to use see an increase of six percent can be smooth.

the precious metals sector struck in October. The gold rose to a record high and missed it, the $ 1,400 mark just as the silver reached a 30-year peak above $ 24 per ounce. Although the potential is still not completely exhausted, I recommend a partial profit-taking, because after such a spectacular rise to consolidate up to the correction of 15% from 5% to be possible.

The oil price has been hampered by the $ 85 per barrel. My reluctance remains here and is discussed regularly on the hotline. The euro can not the $ 1.40 barrier so far . Take From $ 1.45, I advise to sell the euro, as the purchasing power parity is at $ 1.25
















By November the strongest half-year period on Wall Street. Who since 1950, the end of October the S & P 500 invested and six months later, sold the end of April this index (dark blue line) is close to the result of the S & P 500 (light blue line) approach. If, however, invested only in the six-month period from May to October, we shall have since 1950, barely moved from the spot (green line).

Since May 2010, the S & P 500 fell slightly despite the sharp increase in September and October (- 0.3%). In the next six months, I reckon the other hand, with an index increase of at least seven percent. The Dow Jones can certainly exceed the 12,000 mark. To new highs, it will come before the middle of this decade.





The real growth in the third quarter with an increase of 2%, slightly higher than mid-year. The economic recovery now takes five quarters (blue shading) on. The Recession (pink shading) has been overcome. The low point against the previous year was seen at minus 4% in the second quarter of 2009 (red arrow). The current growth of around 3% (green arrow) is on the generally weak growth data somewhat difficult to sustain.

In Germany, the economy is expanding this year with more than three percent and thus leads in Europe. Next year, Germany's growth will slow, however, and fight with the two percent mark.






The American consumer does not look very optimistic about the future. His mood has been stagnating for several months (right green Arrow). The recovery that began two years ago (long blue arrow) is partially evaporates again. Interest rate increases will not occur before the middle of next year. The Notenbankrat, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday for its penultimate meeting of the year will be announced easing credit to stimulate the U.S. economy. At the same place on Tuesday midterm elections in Congress and 36 gubernatorial elections held. President Obama will lose its clear majority in the repr
ä ante sent home. To do the Republicans to gain at least 39 seats. In the Senate, the Democrats will lose at least four seats, but still maintain their majority almost can. Wall Street anticipates that political change already to some extent. A clear victory for the Republicans, however, would lead to further price increases.

The labor market data end on Friday a dramatic hardly be surpassed to week.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on 8 November. The clocks are in the U.S. until 7 November switched to winter time. Therefore, the time difference from America's east coast this week, five instead of the usual six hours.



Heiko Thieme

Monday, October 25, 2010

Big Boobs 60 Yrs Model

unbroken upward trend



This stock rally that began in early September, has been hardly any signs of fatigue. The recent-year highs in April are be tested again on Wall Street in the coming days. The Dax is on the other hand already on his level over two years ago. Without interruption until the end but it can hardly go on. Given the current pace is too fast. was

a break, the gold and silver, having been there, prices exploded in recent years almost. recommended over $ 24 per troy ounce I for silver is a partial profit taking
. In gold the $ 1,400 mark will constitute at least a temporary obstacle. The price of oil is testing its highs. Here I continue to expect a much lower price end of the year. However, this remains a minority view.

With the midterm elections on 2 November is President Obama have to accept deuliche losses in Congress. He may even its present majority in the House Einb ÜSS en. In the Senate's majority will shrink considerably. Wall Street welcomed as part of the radical reform programs Obama so far have found little support from the voters. America is thus a political Pat situation. Similarly, it was 16 years ago, when President Clinton's majority in Congress in the midterm elections, then lost and then he struck a less left-wing course. This led to sustainable economic growth coupled with a spectacular bull market in subsequent years. rose





While the Dow Jones and Dax since early September up to now, 11%, made the U.S. OTC market (NASDAQ) with a gain of more than 17% of that table. If it in the last week of October any degradation, this would be the second best result in Dow Jones for the two-month period between September and October in the past 61 years. Only in 1998 the increase of 14% was a bit better. In the 40 years history of the NASDAQ, it would be the third highest after 1998 and 1982, where the rise in September / October period was 18.2% and 19.6% higher. In both years, the trend had continued without interruption until the end of the year.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in early November.



Heiko Thieme

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Kates Playground Foot Deformation

silver at 30 year high



The second week of October
impressed with increase. Only the oil price could not follow the general upward trend in the weekly close. The current annual increase in the stock market based solely on the now 7-w ö speaking rally, the appeal before the end of September only a brief respite. Since early September, the Dow Jones and Dax risen about 10% while the S & P 500 even at 12% and was impressed by the NASDAQ OTC market) with an increase of almost 17%. In the same period, the euro was a plus recover from 11% further and thus reduced his annual decline significantly. The price of gold rose 10% and expanded it from its annual increase. The clear winner is the silver, which rose 27% and thus again reached a price level where it had last seen 30 years ago. Industrial demand is not however the reason for the recent bull market in precious metals. Primary speculation driving the current prices. This can be dangerous.

Good corporate profits motivated investors in the stock market. About 80% of the previously published quarterly results were above expectations. However, financial stocks took no part in this trend, so that any irregularities in the mortgage market become a new burden in the sector. Nevertheless, many banks are one of my recommendations. More about this on the hotline.



Bild hinzufügen


ended three years ago on Wall Street, the 5-year-old bull (red arrow), when reached, the Dow Jones in the second week of October, a peak of 14 165 and and the Dax down only slightly from its high of 8106 in July 2007. Just 17 months later, the bottom of the bear market in the second week of March 2009 (green arrow) reached the Dow Jones and Dax. And the subsequent new bull market trend has since almost identical. Both indices are around 20% (light green line) away from their highs (blue arrow).





The euro is now on the same level compared to the $ as three years (black line). My buy and sell recommendations based on purchasing power basis are marked and continue to apply. The pronounced volatility shows how emotional is the currency sector. With a calming is expected in the near future, hardly.




inflation remains an issue. The consumer price index is around the one percent mark in both the Core rate (0.8%) and the overall rate (1.1%). The U.S. central bank would rather see a slightly higher level of inflation up to two percent. Key interest rates will therefore remain on view at the zero point. Earliest in the second half of 2011 could occur a change here. U.S. government securities as an investment therefore remain provisional uninteresting.




retail sales in September were better than expected. The weak consumer confidence is not revealed. The recent recovery trend (blue shading) on a monthly basis, however, is not very pronounced, even if the burglary of the second half of 2008 (pink shading) is surely overcome. Since bottoming in December 2008 (red arrow), than the drop had fallen on an annual basis to a decrease of 11%, the recovery is now at a 7% increase the previous year. High unemployment and low consumer confidence, however, provide barriers to a good Christmas operation, not

Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on 25 October.



Heiko Thieme

Friday, October 15, 2010

Arizona Drivers License 21 Thickness

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Saturday, October 9, 2010

What Is The Best Cpu Thermal Compound

Dow Jones 11 000



The world's stock markets once again impressed weeks with a strong result. The rapid upward trend in September is far too early in the fourth quarter as ever. The Dow Jones reached for the first time since early May, the 11,000 mark. The price of gold rose to a record high. Silver also rose significantly, leading to the above table with a gain of almost 37% (green arrow) since the beginning. The euro fell from its year low of 1.20 in early June under $ now recovered significantly and is now on its purchasing power bandwidth of $ 1.20 - $ 1.30. Positions while still keeping, however, is to work with a stop, which I explain to the hotline. The oil price reached its upper range of this year's nearly $ 84 per barrel, before a discharge pressure began. Here are fighting the ghosts, while the trend. The fourth quarter promises to be anything but boring in the world of money.



The first nine months were characterized by a pronounced volatility. The first quarter was generally upward, just the euro did not follow this trend. While precious metals to rise even faster, it came in the second quarter to a general profit-taking in the stock markets and also in oil. My warnings in late April proved so correct. I advised to return to the beginning of the third quarter and had luck with the timing. The increase in July I was too quick, so I advised to take profits. After a weak August, the price explosion was followed in September, which even surprised me. The impressive results from the third quarter in most cases based on the strong increase in September, who scored his best result in 71 years. Normally, however, as the September is the weakest month of the year. As so often, there are at average data laudable exceptions, and this was one of them. Those who missed the September, went into this year so far empty. The fourth quarter starts strong, but the pace is not now in this form to quickly and by stable until year-end. Apnea associated with each boom. However, I expect to continue to be that the recent-year highs by the end of April and tested again exceeded occasionally slightly. Selection is now stocking hotline and hear a must!




Just a few days, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER) has confirmed that the recession ended in mid-2009. This I had already forecast in the spring of 2009. With just under 19 months (green arrow) it was the longest recession since the Great Depression of 1929 (red arrow). Of the total of 22 recessions Since 1900, it was thus the fifth-longest (red line). The average duration of recessions in nearly 15 months (gray line). The danger of renewed recession is at present, even if economic growth weakens slightly, confirming my prediction. The U.S. central bank will do in the coming weeks, all we can to stabilize the economy.





The unemployment rate has been moving more than a year above the 9.5% mark. This placed the Democrats in the congressional elections in early November, a little is to be overcome problem dar. Obama's solid majorities in both houses of Congress not hold. Since the recession (pink shading), the unemployment rate has doubled (red arrow). A short-term relaxation is not in sight.




after the recession (pink shading), it was only for five months (green shading) to create new jobs. The reason for this was the population survey, which resulted in temporary settings of the state. Meanwhile, the survey completed and the required people are re-opened. Declining labor market data (pink shade with a question mark) are a burden for the White House dar.







The historical comparison shows that the situation is today, the U.S. labor market (red line), the rise from 2001 to 2006 (yellow line). In all other economic recoveries since 1954, the improvements in the labor market are considerably better (blue line). The commencement of recovery is marked by the black line and red arrow. The green arrow shows where the labor market today, 15 months after the recession is. The blue arrow shows how much further were the other phases of recovery to the same period. The labor market will be under pressure for months.






The American consumer is remitted (red line). Since the beginning of 2009 (blue arrow) to go back to consumer credit, after the rate of increase has previously been significantly reduced. At the same time, the debt to income has improved significantly since then (red arrow). However, this is not a good omen for retailers, especially just before the vital Christmas sales. The consumer has spent over two years no longer the engine of the U.S. economy.






Inventories of crude oil compared to the previous year (red arrow) increased significantly (green arrow). The current rise in oil prices from a fundamental perspective, therefore, makes no sense. Non-economic considerations, but speculation is currently driving the oil price. Since I'd rather stay spectators.






The Dow Jones is back there (green arrow), where he was in May 1999 (blue arrow), as the 11,000 mark (green line) for the first time has been exceeded. So disappointing this may be, but you could at the volatility earn in the past 11 years on the stock market good money. Buy and hold, however, was not a successful strategy. My buy and sell signals are marked with blue and pink shading.





Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer, has presented a positive quarterly result. Anyone who followed my recommendations, sold earlier this year when the stock traded above $ 16 (pink shading), and rose again from the end of May, a (blue shading), as the price fell below $ 11.50. Those who shopped in two or three tranches will, on average, a gain of around 20% in just under five Months. Positions are now available with a stop to secure and to reduce gradually from $ 14.50. The hotline continues to pursue this track.


Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on 18 October. The bond market in the U.S. on Monday because of "Columbus Day" closed. On 12 October 1492 "discovered" Christopher Columbus America. The stock markets are open, however normal.

The main event takes place but this week probably on Wednesday starting in Chile, when it comes to the rescue of miners trapped for 60 days. This is every anniversary and also stock market rally in the shadows. Click here about people and not money.




Heiko Thieme

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Long Recover Pleurisy

No Internet!

because of limited Internet access for technical reasons, the next blog until Monday, 11 Appear in October. The stock market works Hotline normal and every day.


Tuesday, October 5, 2010

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Day of the stones in the city - Saturday, 23/10/2010

A new tour for residents - and friends - from Coswig

For Saturday, invites 10/23/2010 Rondo Education and Culture (Reinhard Henry) in Coswig you to a new city tour.

Under the expert guidance of the mineralogist and geologist Prof. Dr. habil. Siegfried Grunert, we want to attract the first time this year in Coswig understanding and enjoyment of natural stones in our urban environment and of course draw attention to the specificities of the local (or non-local) material.

since 2008 was the "Day of the stones" in Germany has twice committed in more than 30 locations with over 70 events (reports and a natural stone, Issue 12.08, p. 18 - 21 and Bulletin 12:09 p. 32 - 36).

We are pleased to now also in Coswig under qualified supervision, a little more about the "building blocks" out of our city and tell you to.

is a meeting place (of course) of the "Stone Garden" at the tram stop "Coswig Exchange / center clock at 11:00.

The tour will again take a "good lesson".

for the preparation and implementation we ask for a small fee of 2 € (reduced 1,50 €).