Friday, February 25, 2011

Prom Houses In The Hamptons

respite



The overdue respite in the stock markets came in this morning. The reason for this provided the riots in Libya that led to a sharp increase in oil price (green arrow), with even the $ 100 mark temporarily has been exceeded. The price gap between oil and gas currently makes barrels to almost $ 80 from base. Not fundamental facts - there is enough oil available, but pure speculation drives the 'black gold' in the air. There is no logical price point, it no longer, as the economic sense is excluded right now. In such an emotional speculation I'd rather stay spectators. Only a price drop to $ 80 a barrel would arouse my interest to buy again. This may take several months. Patience is sometimes necessary to a Virtue.

The February end at the most exchanges with high probability in positive territory. However, the rise on Wall Street and fail in Germany is not as spectacular as it appeared a week ago. The respite has taken the wind out of these sails. Especially when there was Dax this week (red arrow) significant setbacks, after beginning of the week was still a new annual high.




the precious metals sector is currently more driven by emotion rather than rationality, so I also like the oil remains passive. Technically speaking the price of silver can even now return to the absolute highs of around $ 50 per ounce (blue arrow) remains above 30 years . Rise Such a level would not last.




The euro has recovered from its weakness at the beginning again, and now is testing the resistance level of $ 1.38 (red line). My recommendation remains unchanged here. Under $ 1.30 (green line), the euro is attractive, from $ 1.40 the $ interesting. The purchasing power parity based my strategy.




The American economic growth in the fourth quarter (+2.8%) is not as robust as originally adopted (+3.2). Year on year the increase was 2.7%, confirming my prediction a year ago. The U.S. central bank and the government is hoping for a slightly stronger growth this year. If the oil price but a longer time near the $ 100 mark, so this is a tax increase equal to that affect consumer spending and growth. Each one cent increase in gasoline costs the American consumer about a billion dollars a year. The gasoline price by a dollar, then this would be a burden of 100 billion dollars for the consumer.




The consumer sentiment is the end of February to the highest level (blue arrow) in three years (light green arrow) increased. The lows (three red arrows), there were during the recession of 2008-2009 and have now been overcome significantly. The recent oil price rise may have adversely affected the good mood in the coming weeks.



Shares of Bank of America is only slightly above my purchase level of $ 12 - $ 14 (marked blue). From $ 20 wins are to be taken (pink label). Two years ago, the price falls below the $ 4 mark fell and thereby offered an almost unique Buying opportunity. In just a few months, the stock rose 400% (green arrow) . I recommended taking profits on the Hotline each have the $ 18 mark.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 7 March.



Heiko Thieme



Friday, February 18, 2011

Revlon Colourstay To Mac Nc20

100% in 2 years are crucial



This week it was generally at a rapid pace up. The price of silver reached with an increase of over 9% (green arrow) in first place and climbed to its highest level in 31 years. The S & P 500 Index has since early December risen without any significant interruptions almost 14%. Such a pace of around 60% plus in the long run, however, is not tenable. In economics and politics, there are many unsolved problems of the stock market can not be ignored indefinitely. However, I did not expect an imminent end of this nearly two-year bull market, but with only short interruptions or technical reasons Corrections.



Retail sales in January were expected with an increase of 0.3% (red arrow) is less than universal. The seven-month recovery trend (green shading) has waned considerably since November. Compared with the previous year, the increase of nearly 8% (blue arrow) is satisfactory only at first glance. Part of the improvement stems from those significantly higher gasoline prices. Despite all the weakness in the retail sector from the second half of 2008 (pink shading) been overcome.



The inflation issue more and more filled the headlines in the financial press. As a warning are strongly rising food prices and energy costs. Nevertheless, the general trend of prices continues to moderate. The core rate - excluding energy and food - just below the one percent mark (green line), while the overall rate is 1.7% (blue arrow). The central bank is therefore not in a tight spot.



The bull market in stocks on 10 March two year old and thus corresponds to the time average of the 27 bull markets since 1929, although the increase is nearly 100% in the S & P 500 Index as 25% above the average increase of 80%. A doubling in two years, an increase of 40% per year. Of the 27 bull markets, there were only four, lasting longer and had a larger index rises to 100%. The air is so thin. Therefore, gains should be protected. The silver tops the table above and hit the gold since March 2009 significantly.

Previous winners on the Dow Jones and Dax since March 2009, Bank of America, with an increase of over 500%, which, however, was reached in April 2010, and Infineon, with gains of 2,200%! Both titles have been recommended in the blog and on the hotline two years ago.

Further analysis and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 28 February. On Monday, 21 February are the stock exchanges in the U.S. for Presidents' Day - in memory of President Washington and Lincoln - closed.


Heiko Thieme

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Gx620 Driver Sound Win7 64bit

dividends



February is usually the second-worst month in stock market grows. On average, it came here in 1950 to a minus of 0.3% for the S & P 500 Index. Nothing has yet been felt. The first two weeks of February brought in an increase of 3.3%. Since early December, the Dow Jones only a week - end of January - not increased! The current status is the highest level since June 2008. From market technology creates a break is overdue.

The "peaceful" transfer of power in Egypt was on Friday acknowledged on the stock exchanges with applause and represents a new historical chapter dar. The target of the youth transition from dictatorship to democracy will take years and is significant risks. This attempt succeeds, it is the structures throughout the Middle East lasting change.

Oil prices were on a daily basis and also during the week significantly to and represents the current bottom since the beginning (red arrows). My reluctance persists here. On the stock markets went the-counter market (NASDAQ) as winner of the day and the Dax emerged as the winner of the week and past year's best (green arrows).




almost two years ago - on 9 March 2009 - Wall Street ended at the largest bear market in over 75 years. Since then there has been a remarkable recovery. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 round 75% of the residue from their highs in October 2007 again caught up. The-counter market (NASDAQ), strongly influenced by the technology sector, and the Russell 2000 Index, the small companies (small caps) are represented, even tightly moved up to their highs of 2007. The S & P 400 index of medium-sized companies (mid caps) contains, has already reached a new record high. With new record highs on the Dow Jones and S & P 500 I expect next year. The OTC market will reach its peak of 5048 in March 2000 but the earliest in the second half of this decade again.



The real - inflation adjusted - exchange gain on U.S. stock exchanges constitutes almost 2% in annual average. This statistic goes up to 1871 - the Year of German Empire - back. A more detailed analysis shows that in the first 70 years from 1871 to 1941 increase came even to any index (red arrow). Only in the 70 years from 1941 to 2010 was an index increase, which reached an annual average of just under 4% (blue arrow), but was subject to significant fluctuations.

A much better and continuous result was obtained when the dividend payments were always reinvested. Here we came upon a real return of over 6% (green line) without significant changes in the last 140 years. Thus, doubling an investment in the stock market in almost 12 years. Were $ 1,000 invested in 1871 in Wall Street, it would be today, including nominal dividends more than $ 220 million and approximately $ 4.5 million real dividends of the crucial key to success in the stock market.



The U.S. consumer is again optimistic. The barometer (blue arrow) is almost back to the same level as the middle of last year (green arrow). The lows (red arrows) from 2008 to early 2009 have been overcome despite the continuing high unemployment rate. Economic growth this year may reach the 3% mark.

recommended on the hotline I take profit on Thursday with German Stock Exchange, after the merger negotiations were announced with the New York Stock Exchange. The share price rose on Thursday € 62 on short notice and thus brought a gain of over 25% since my buy recommendation 8 weeks. A buy recommendation is against Cisco Systems in a Price below $ 19, after the quarterly results disappointing. Who has little patience can achieve in the next 12 to 15 months, a gain of over 30%. There


Other comments and recommendations is available on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 21 February.



Heiko Thieme



How To Un Remove Someone On An Event

function, like a plastic bag in the wind.

Friday, February 11, 2011

Can I Shower With A Tiffanys Bracelet On?

Evolution.

This has been posted all over already, which is how I came across it in the first place. I just love it so much that I want to feature it again for all of you who happened to miss it: Big Bang Big Boom .

Enjoy and spread the word.

Tuesday, February 8, 2011

Men In Open Bottom Girdles

the legendary camper night.