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signaled the first week of 2011, a buy signal, which has a remarkably high accuracy of 87%. The S & P 500 Index on the fifth trading day of the new year with the final score of the previous year, there have been since 1950 to an annual increase of about 14% average. In the 38 years when the S & P was 500 in the first five days in Plus, there were only five cases, no annual increase! My forecast for this year proceeds from a potential index of at least 15%. However, there will be no linear progression, but similar to last year experience a significant volatility. During the year, again a correction can be at least 10%. Currently the stock is overbought after a six-week uptrend technical perspective. Investors should wait for a price weakness, rather than buying in a rising market.

precious metals and oil have had a weak start. The selling pressure is still not over. Caution is still called for. The euro came under pressure for several days and is now back in his purchasing power bandwidth reached $ 1.30 - from $ 1.20.





The American industry has been on an improving trend September again (light green arrow). Prior to the recovery (dark green arrow) was interrupted for five months (pink shading) have been. This index is made up of a survey of nearly 400 companies from 60 sectors. This includes agriculture, mining, property development, transportation companies, communications and trade and retail. With further improvements in the course to be expected.



The U.S. labor market remains a problem that can not be solved quickly. The slump (pink shading) is for one year (blue shading) overcome. The low point (red arrow) was achieved in mid 2009. In December, while creating 113 000 new jobs, but that number was far more optimistic of expectations. The simultaneous decline in the unemployment rate from 9.8% to 9.4% was only the fact that many people are responsible for seeking a job. Although 2009 were created over 1.1 million new jobs (green arrow), the unemployment rate fell, since far more people were added to the labor market. It takes only about 150,000 new jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate only constant!



came in the last ten years in the labor market to significant fluctuations. The highest pay of employees was seen in late 2007 with around 138 million. Then came the recession to an enormous wave of layoffs, so that today fewer people are employed in the U.S. 10 years ago.








The first decade of the new millennium was by far the worst since 1940 for the labor market. Unlike previous decades, no job created, but jobs were lost even (red question mark). The new decade just one year shows a slight improvement, but is now back well below the standard 1940 to 1999.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will follow on Tuesday, 18 January, because Monday is a holiday in the USA.


Heiko Thieme

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Outlook 2011

The December contributed significantly to the gain over the year on Wall Street at. My forecast was optimistic beginning at the end even exceeded. When Dax was the 7,000 mark my top goal, which was taken in early December. The most spectacular gains were however in the commodity sector, with precious metals took the first places. A similar increase is in the New Year, however unrealistic. The e € counts contrast to the losers. With a better performance I expect this year. My reluctance to oil was just completed by the end of August, when the price fell back almost to the $ 70 mark. The subsequent increase to the $ 90 mark I had not expected. The $ 100 level now is the next target for speculators. I continue to stay here and I recommend viewers first a purchase, if the oil price well below $ 80 is per barrel.

The third presidential year is by far the best trading year in the four-year election cycle. The average course of the Dow Jones index since 1900, shows the blue line. The light green line, however, is the average development in the respective third presidential year since 111 years. The Dow Jones may thus reach this year exceed the 13,000-mark and even a little. When Dax I expect a new Höchstand of 8,150 over the year.

While the Notenbankrat meets eight times in the U.S., the European Central Bank holds monthly meetings of one day. The Bank of England also meets monthly, but for two days. The Swiss National Bank is satisfied with one-day quarterly meetings.

The central bank will also set the tone for the New Year in the global markets. Interest rates for daily allowances will remain low until at least mid-year, not to jeopardize the economic recovery. Despite higher raw material prices can be seen a significant inflationary pressure in non-being, even when it comes to monthly fluctuations.

government bonds remain interesting as long as the interest rate is significantly below the long-term trend. During the first decade of this century, government bonds, the stock market clearly suggested that this decade belongs back the shares.

The weak U.S. labor market affects consumer confidence in December fell by a surprisingly strong. Although the retail sector after the collapse of one year (pink shading) since November 2009 on an annual basis, higher revenues identifies (green shading), consumer confidence varies only slightly over the past 18 months the 50-point mark (red line) and could not keep the recreational level in May this year (green arrow). Although the nadir of the first quarter of 2009 (red arrow) is clearly overcome, however, remain relatively skeptical of consumers. Only when the job market calmed down and see an improvement trend is that the consumer will again contribute significantly to overall economic growth.

The U.S. housing market is under renewed pressure on prices. After the prices of existing single-family homes in 2007 had fallen steadily through May 209 (left pink shading) and in January 2009 (red arrow) around 20% below the price level from the previous year, it came to the spring of this year for a price recovery in excess of 5% (green arrow ), although partly based on tax benefits. In October, showed the three-month average price improvement on no more over the previous year. Since the mid-points of this index, which considers the 10 most important cities in the U.S., again monthly price declines (right shade of pink) on, after it had been for over a year (blue shading) come to monthly price improvement.

Although the housing market remains a problem, building value to show first signs of recovery. Since the end of August is the construction sector Index (ETF - XHB: U.S.) increased by 25%. My Recommended thus contributes fruit. However, it is here to clear index fluctuations. This topic is frequently discussed on the hotline.





A current recommendation is to buy German bank between 36 € to 40 €. The upside potential is here for 50 € this year. Another recommendation is the American pharmaceutical stocks, Pfizer between $ 16 to $ 18 with a market potential of also 25% in the year.

further assessments and specific recommendations are available on the hotline, which this year celebrates its 25th anniversary. The next blog will be available on Monday, 10 January.

A healthy and prosperous New Year!

Heiko Thieme