Brent Everett And Brent Cardigan

Christmas season opened

The day after Thanksgiving (Thanksgiving) began on Friday the Christmas season for retailers to officially. On Wall Street was trading on that day with very low turnover and low rates only until 13:00 clock. The shortened course of a week - on Thursday the stock markets were closed - brought up on the counter market slight negative numbers. Also, the Dax had a hard time to close in positive territory. Nevertheless, market players with the old annual yield to be satisfied.

The clear loser in the € (red arrows) was. The Ireland-crisis took their toll. However, the euro is still above its purchasing power parity of $ 1.25 and is far from weak. From $ 1.30 U.S. dollars to exchange positions again gradually in €.

the precious metals sector is the winner of the year, while silver is at the top (green arrow). The oil price has since recovered fully, although here I was maintaining my skepticism.

rose Corporate profits after tax to a record high of $ 1.427 trillion (green arrow) in the third quarter! Compared with the previous year this is an improvement of over 28% (blue arrow). End of 2008, profits fell 50% (red arrow) and were under $ 700 billion (yellow arrow). Although the improvement trend can not continue in the same form, further increases in profits in the fourth quarter are realistic.

The American consumer is a little more optimism in the Christmas season (green arrow). The retailers reported higher sales this weekend compared to last year. Economic growth can thus keep the 3% mark in short supply.

The auto sector has significant price improvement for a year. This benefited both the American Ford's shares and the German Volkswagen's share price. The Japanese car manufacturer Toyota is slightly down compared to its previous level, as there was came here to mass complaints. The current rate is therefore a chance to get started on 9-15 month view.

The Toyota shares I give a price potential of 20% - 30% until the first quarter of 2012. The purchase of yen level 3000-3400 is to be considered. The downward trend (red line) is clearly broken.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will be available on Monday, 6 December.

Heiko Thieme

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contrast



The third week of November provided a contrast, and was far more volatile than the end result that on Wall Street brought little change. Nervousness due to potential losses in the hundreds of billions of Irish banks was not only in Europe through the stock markets until mid-week under selling pressure. The Dow Jones fell below the 11,000 mark while the short term. This was a warning that the global financial crisis is not over. Provided for optimism then second week section General Motors with its successful return to the stock exchange. Like a phoenix from the ashes of the already significantly increased the offer price rose on the first trading day in some cases up to nine percent in the level before a certain degree of comfort began. The largest American stock offering has been so successfully placed. This is proof that government intervention sometimes make sense.

While gold prices continue to be consolidated, was already back in silver recovery a , after the price had been dropped within a week by 13%. The selling pressure in oil continued;. the $ 90 a barrel this year will hardly be achieved. Volatility will be with the precious metals sector and the oil in the coming months. The euro could reduce on weekly closing the massive selling pressure somewhat. A rapid recovery is expected, however, hardly.




A look back at the past 12 months shows that the 10,000 mark at the Dow Jones offered always a good entry level. This was recommended on my hotline and in this blog. I advised profit-taking in the spring, when the Dow crossed 11,000. Then it was up to the first mid-year correction since the beginning of this bull market by March 2009. Those who call for my Christmas purchases in July followed, can run the gains further, as we are in the strongest stock market phase of the year.




Dax, Dow Jones and NASDAQ have developed in parallel to each other this year, with the Dax and the counter market (NASDAQ) are almost equal (green circle). Taking into account dividend payments and the currency gain, the Dow Jones draws so the Dax same. The Japanese Nikkei is this year's losers (red circle), although even here since early September, a rally was, without the potential of this exploit. The bull market will continue in all four indices in the next year. When Dax even a new record is possible. This will be the Dow Jones before 2012, however the case.



inflation warnings are still inappropriate. Consumer prices are just above the one percent mark. The U.S. central bank is targeting the other hand, an inflation rate of two percent (green line) to . The core rate, without volatile food and energy costs, is even well below one percent. Despite low inflation, there is no risk of deflation. Since the middle of last year, the Price level of minus two percent (red arrow) is now recovered.




The capacity utilization rate has been stagnating for four months (green circle) to the 75% mark. With the start of the recession, the utilization rate came under considerable pressure from the end of 2007 (red arrow). The subsequent recovery (blue arrow) was however, been relatively modest. At low capacity utilization increases are difficult to enforce. This is one reason for continued low inflation in the next year.




In the private sector, the soil formation (yellow) is still ongoing. Although mortgage rates have dropped to a low point, remains the Bauinteresse from the past. The backlog of houses and apartments will be added until further. My Recommended in the construction sector - KB Home (KBH) - remains in place, even if this patient is necessary (see blog of 12 November).

This week is primarily of Thanksgiving (Thanksgiving), which takes place on the fourth Thursday in November, marked and dedicated to the family. Wednesday is considered the most important day of travel a year. Many market players are already left the office early to view in the family. On Thursday, the markets are closed. The common turkey dinner is the highlight of the week. On Friday the stock market is only open half a day. For retailers this Friday begins with the Christmas season. Department stores are already open from 3 clock in the morning (!). It is the most important shopping day of the year (black Friday).

Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on Monday, 29 November.



Heiko Thieme

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respite




After an almost uninterrupted stock market rally since early September, it came to Wall Street this week for the first time to take a respite. In Germany the Dax ended up only slightly in the red. By the end I expect somewhat higher rates than before. The potential lies in the Dow Jones 11500-12000, while the Dax may rise to 7,000. was

The greatest loss is in the precious metals sector. After the gold price had reached the beginning of week a new high of almost $ 1,410, began a significant selling pressure. Profit-taking after such a strong rise is normal. When silver was the reaction after this the $ 29 mark was reached per troy ounce, even more pronounced (red arrows) and led to a correction of over 10% in three days. However, the silver price is an increase of over 50% since the start (green arrow) remains well ahead. Volatility will be seen in precious metals in the coming weeks. My recommendation to take profits at least partially, remains. The oil price was under selling pressure after the This year's range was exceeded in the short term. Here, too, my reserve is still valid.

The euro is due to further financial concerns of some euro countries such as Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece for nearly two weeks' time pressure. What is overlooked here is that the U.S. also has a historically high debt ratio, which justifies a sustained dollar strength no. However, the dollar is currently almost 10% below its purchasing power parity against the euro, which meant that the monetary sector will be shaped in the coming months of volatility.




A comparison between Dow Jones and the Gold shows how this correlation has changed for the gold. 1999 still had to pay rich almost 45 ounces of gold for the Dow Jones, today some eight ounces of gold to a Dow Jones to buy certificate. This is a decline of over 80% within 11 years. Currently the upper level (red line) of the trend channel is being tested once again. So far it has been enforced since 1999, the gold as a better investment. A further acceleration of this trend, I believe, however unlikely, as I expect in this decade with a new peak in the Dow Jones up to 20,000 and the gold price at $ 5,000 see per troy ounce.




Apple has with some $ 290 billion is now the third highest market capitalization among all listed companies in the world. The largest company is the U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil with $ 362 billion. followed by PetroChina, with $ 334 billion market capitalization. 10 years ago gave many of the computer manufacturer Apple's little chance of survival than the share price had fallen to $ 10. Meanwhile, the value listed at $ 316 and holds about $ 50 billion in cash. End of June at a price of $ 272 I recommended to take profits. Then the stock price fell to $ 240 to the end of August. As I expected an even lower price, I missed the return. At current levels I would again reduce positions if they still have. even more spectacular than Apple was the share price of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters in the past decade. While Apple rose about 1,100% since the beginning of 2000, increased the share price of the coffee manufacturer to nearly 11,000%, making it the winner among all U.S. stocks in this nearly 11-year period. While investors in Apple made $ 1,000 in 11 years made $ 12,000, investors came to Green Mountain Coffee Roasters to an impressive $ 110,000! The Dow Jones, however, is now roughly back to where he was almost 11 years ago. Stock selection and timing determine investment success. The price-earnings ratio (PER) of over 30, I rate the coffee producers to profit-taking .




The construction sector is in the U.S. is still in crisis. In the latest three years but should also here the floor is not found. Since the stock market anticipates such a thing to double from current level of KB Homes would be more of a pessimistic forecast. Current market price is around 85% below the maximum rate of just over five years. My purchase level is between $ 10 to $ 13 at the current rate of just under $ 13 A recommendation for patient investors, the short-term price fluctuations do not make them nervous.


Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog appear on Monday, 23 November.



Heiko Thieme

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New highs




The rally began in early September, even after more than nine weeks may remain intact. The embarked pace can continue without brief respite, however, since the market is overbought technically considered. This applies not only to the stock market but also for precious metals.

The price of gold rose to a new record high, closing just below the $ 1,400 mark. Even the silver continued its flight and has since the beginning an increase of almost 60% (green arrow). The technical hurdle of $ 24 was easily taken a few days ago. Even if it is up to the record high of $ 50 before 30 years (see blog of 18 September 2010) is no more technical resistance level, this level earlier than in the second half of this decade will be tested.

The oil price is testing again this year its upper range. A sustained outbreak is fundamentally unjustified, but would primarily be based on emotion. Even the OPEC considers an oil price of about $ 85 per barrel to be unrealistic.

tried since the beginning of October the euro, the $ 1.40 mark to overcome. From $ 1.45 € are to exchange positions again in $, since then the distance to the purchasing power parity, with 15% is too high.

The midterm elections brought few surprises but confirmed the fear that President Obama needs to reign in the second half of his first term as majority Democrats in the House of Representatives. The loss of 64 seats was higher than expected, while the worst performance in midterm elections in 62 years. In the Senate, the clear majority of Democrats fell from 59 seats together to 53. President Obama must now find a political path from the left wing to center, similar to Clinton in 1994 made after the Republican victory in the midterm elections added. This requires pragmatism rather than ideology. Obama is the only way his chances for re-election in two years true.




The labor market data was in October with 151,000 new jobs (green arrow) is better than generally expected, while the two previous months were increased by 110,000 jobs. This underlines once again how unreliable statistics are sometimes initially. If the adjusted figures released one month later, react to market participants barely, even if the original picture changed completely.

the start of the recession in late 2008 led to losses of jobs. As the pink shading indicates the layoffs lasted a full two years and escalated to the first quarter of 2009 to about 750,000 jobs per month. Even after the worst recession since World War II (black arrow) the number of layoffs increased since mid-2009 only gradually from. The state population survey conducted in early 2010 to a sharp increase in the labor market (blue arrow). The demand of jobs increased only temporarily and led very quickly to layoffs (yellow arrow). The annual trend is however seen a gradual improvement in the labor market. Shortly after the end of the recession, the number of jobs fallen over the previous year by 5% (red arrow); now the balance is slightly positive (green arrow). This encouraging development was for Obama but in the midterm elections of late.





Unemployment was just before the recession in late 2007 only slightly over 4.5%, and escalated within almost two years to 10% (red arrow) without demonstrate a clear improvement trend so far. Patience is required here. It requires only 150,000 new jobs each month to the current unemployment rate of 9.6% not to have to rise.





The productivity of American industry has improved in this decade, almost all the time. Only once did in the fourth quarter of 2008, the start of the worst recession since World War II, in a slight decrease over the previous year (red arrow) . Unit labor costs have moderated significantly since two years and the end of 2009 were 3% lower than last year (right green arrow). Similarly, it was the beginning of 2002 (left green arrow). Even today, the unit labor costs are still below their year-earlier level. Increasing productivity and moderate labor costs explain the significant profit improvements of U.S. companies and the low inflation .





silver is hard to stop. gave a new 30-year high it beginning of the week. Since late August, the price of silver has risen by 50%. In the past 10 years, followed by an above-average growth has always a significant decline of 30% to 50% within a relatively short time (blue markers). I advise caution as driving emotions and fundamental facts that recent price trends. Existing positions are to be secured.


My interview with Andreas Scholz of DAF can on the blog of 4 November saw be. Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on Monday, 15 November.



Heiko Thieme

Infection Of The Big Toe Due To Pedicure

interview DAF

This is my interview with DAF Andreas Scholz, from 10/27/2010.
This is about the current stock market situation.