The third week of November provided a contrast, and was far more volatile than the end result that on Wall Street brought little change. Nervousness due to potential losses in the hundreds of billions of Irish banks was not only in Europe through the stock markets until mid-week under selling pressure. The Dow Jones fell below the 11,000 mark while the short term. This was a warning that the global financial crisis is not over. Provided for optimism then second week section General Motors with its successful return to the stock exchange. Like a phoenix from the ashes of the already significantly increased the offer price rose on the first trading day in some cases up to nine percent in the level before a certain degree of comfort began. The largest American stock offering has been so successfully placed. This is proof that government intervention sometimes make sense.
While gold prices continue to be consolidated, was already back in silver recovery a , after the price had been dropped within a week by 13%. The selling pressure in oil continued;. the $ 90 a barrel this year will hardly be achieved. Volatility will be with the precious metals sector and the oil in the coming months. The euro could reduce on weekly closing the massive selling pressure somewhat. A rapid recovery is expected, however, hardly.
A look back at the past 12 months shows that the 10,000 mark at the Dow Jones offered always a good entry level. This was recommended on my hotline and in this blog. I advised profit-taking in the spring, when the Dow crossed 11,000. Then it was up to the first mid-year correction since the beginning of this bull market by March 2009. Those who call for my Christmas purchases in July followed, can run the gains further, as we are in the strongest stock market phase of the year.
Dax, Dow Jones and NASDAQ have developed in parallel to each other this year, with the Dax and the counter market (NASDAQ) are almost equal (green circle). Taking into account dividend payments and the currency gain, the Dow Jones draws so the Dax same. The Japanese Nikkei is this year's losers (red circle), although even here since early September, a rally was, without the potential of this exploit. The bull market will continue in all four indices in the next year. When Dax even a new record is possible. This will be the Dow Jones before 2012, however the case.
inflation warnings are still inappropriate. Consumer prices are just above the one percent mark. The U.S. central bank is targeting the other hand, an inflation rate of two percent (green line) to . The core rate, without volatile food and energy costs, is even well below one percent. Despite low inflation, there is no risk of deflation. Since the middle of last year, the Price level of minus two percent (red arrow) is now recovered.
The capacity utilization rate has been stagnating for four months (green circle) to the 75% mark. With the start of the recession, the utilization rate came under considerable pressure from the end of 2007 (red arrow). The subsequent recovery (blue arrow) was however, been relatively modest. At low capacity utilization increases are difficult to enforce. This is one reason for continued low inflation in the next year.
In the private sector, the soil formation (yellow) is still ongoing. Although mortgage rates have dropped to a low point, remains the Bauinteresse from the past. The backlog of houses and apartments will be added until further. My Recommended in the construction sector - KB Home (KBH) - remains in place, even if this patient is necessary (see blog of 12 November).
This week is primarily of Thanksgiving (Thanksgiving), which takes place on the fourth Thursday in November, marked and dedicated to the family. Wednesday is considered the most important day of travel a year. Many market players are already left the office early to view in the family. On Thursday, the markets are closed. The common turkey dinner is the highlight of the week. On Friday the stock market is only open half a day. For retailers this Friday begins with the Christmas season. Department stores are already open from 3 clock in the morning (!). It is the most important shopping day of the year (black Friday).
Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on Monday, 29 November.
Heiko Thieme
policy of the U.S. central bank to YouTube communicate in English. suited to smile and think.
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