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Rising further confirmed



The bull market in the coming week is two years old. The January and February brought good index gains. Since 1950, there was not a bad trading year on Wall Street, where the first two months closed with gains. Previously, this was 23 times the case. The average increase was a rise of 20%. My prediction at the beginning of a rise of around 15% was thus very conservative. Also for the March, I expected the index further increases. The brief respite it offered buying opportunities that have been discussed on the hotline.

The U.S. dollar is now interesting again after the euro well above its purchasing power parity increase of $ 1.25.


A burden is, however, the high oil price dar. The unrest in the Middle East will not agree to any quick relief. Precious metals will benefit from this uncertainty. In both sectors, I stay still (a little frustrated) viewers.




The American labor market is improving. In February, 192 000 new jobs were created. In the private sector, there were actually 222,000 in the civil service since it came to layoffs. At the same time, the employment figures for December and January after by 58,000 revised upwards. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since May 2009 again under the 9% mark. The two-year weakness in the labor market (red shading) is overcome, despite the improvements since March 2010 (green shading) previously defined (yellow shading) was. In the coming months is likely to emerge here, a more continuous development. The monetary policy of the U.S. central bank pays out on the labor market.



past two years (green shading), productivity (Prod) in the United States has improved significantly. Unit labor cost (ULC) are of their depression End of 2009 (red arrow), as they were as pleased at the beginning of 2002 (red arrow) down 3%, now back on the zero level (blue arrow) increased. Both statistics support the positive earnings trend since mid-2009 with U.S. companies, which is on a new record high. An immediate inflation pressure is not currently visible. However, will limit price increases in commodities further profit improvements, if companies can not impose price increases. In plain language this means that in the next few quarters, inflationary pressures increase or decrease the profit increases.


More Assessments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 14 March.


Heiko Thieme

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linguistik

and suddenly we are no longer
what we were and what we wanted
are nothing more
only as side by side
alive and going and asking
and yet each set point with an end

it is easier to become
without want to talk andor contact
quite stand up to organize without
and like and love
and can and: no remorse
only echoing steps the streets along

furtive glances left right left
finger Kopp tram door knobs
bloody strip inside areas in hand
from reading too much
and and do take notice and opinion-forming
et cetera pp

said learn to speak without
a heartbeat without noise
head under water because: dull
and cold and warm and
a drop eye in the hair before
does not exist in two point zero

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there are rocks all over we can hide under.

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Utilitarismus.

act and we oppose it. Not only to ourselves when we do what we have not done or not done what we set out, nor others, if we a (drawers) thought not meet or do not act, as assumed, is that is traded. We do not work. We are not a machine that complains only when the juice goes out and otherwise nice runs and has no pain and no objections and no problems. We live and think and feel and do quite a lot and do not see, do not get it. Why we should understand that. Why should we restrain ourselves in what appears to us pleasant. Man is selfish in itself. By this we change anything. It is perhaps only a question of how to deal with the selfishness, or rather a question of how to deal with the other. If we know that we all share this characteristic, including, yes, we can adjust to and meet in the middle. Of course, we are selfish. We're the only thing we have and can access and change, and ours. We are just ourselves and no one else and that we are not always the next one (after all we love and the heart again and again), but what we love, we are not and can not control.

We therefore can act as we please. Or else, we act the way we appear properly in some form. A universal right and wrong it is a universal but not in that sense. Is it as wrong, someone to do mentally hurt when it is the only way to ward off damage from itself. Or it is right to raise his voice against brawling teenagers when you can expect to make everything worse. The answers are so simple at first: Yes, wrong and yes, correct. Lens.

But we are not objective. We are beings with experience and personalities that influence us in every step that we do. And even if we believe, how to act in given situations, we can not expect to make the episode too. We pinch, are afraid to be angry or sad or whatever. We are not heroes: nobody needs heroes. Heroes make the ordinary people and small and worthless are figures that we have invented in order to believe in something better . But: No one is better than another if each according to its values in its essence is. And also to share values since, where and how they develop, and are not good or bad. They are simple and it totally subjective.

We all know what you do not do and what is forbidden and what restrictions should be broken and that it certainly is not because they have full rights. We all know we need rules in life. But we also know all how to drive a car, without endangering others and how much can we drink before we go to the ground and how we should behave in the presence of people who impress us. We know that we are tired or distracted by too little sleep. We know that we have to eat and drink and company and we need also know that we are not the only ones who need it and still have an imbalance. Within us and around us. If tired, break rules, sometimes eat too little and sometimes drink too much and sometimes too little and sometimes too much and behave in the presence of strange people who impress us and oppose us and our plans and expectations. Estimates are based on schemes that we see and do see andor assume, then, that ever something similar or the same or the opposite was. At least an idea of what we expect to be there. And I think: we can not expect anything from us or others. We can only hope.

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respite



The overdue respite in the stock markets came in this morning. The reason for this provided the riots in Libya that led to a sharp increase in oil price (green arrow), with even the $ 100 mark temporarily has been exceeded. The price gap between oil and gas currently makes barrels to almost $ 80 from base. Not fundamental facts - there is enough oil available, but pure speculation drives the 'black gold' in the air. There is no logical price point, it no longer, as the economic sense is excluded right now. In such an emotional speculation I'd rather stay spectators. Only a price drop to $ 80 a barrel would arouse my interest to buy again. This may take several months. Patience is sometimes necessary to a Virtue.

The February end at the most exchanges with high probability in positive territory. However, the rise on Wall Street and fail in Germany is not as spectacular as it appeared a week ago. The respite has taken the wind out of these sails. Especially when there was Dax this week (red arrow) significant setbacks, after beginning of the week was still a new annual high.




the precious metals sector is currently more driven by emotion rather than rationality, so I also like the oil remains passive. Technically speaking the price of silver can even now return to the absolute highs of around $ 50 per ounce (blue arrow) remains above 30 years . Rise Such a level would not last.




The euro has recovered from its weakness at the beginning again, and now is testing the resistance level of $ 1.38 (red line). My recommendation remains unchanged here. Under $ 1.30 (green line), the euro is attractive, from $ 1.40 the $ interesting. The purchasing power parity based my strategy.




The American economic growth in the fourth quarter (+2.8%) is not as robust as originally adopted (+3.2). Year on year the increase was 2.7%, confirming my prediction a year ago. The U.S. central bank and the government is hoping for a slightly stronger growth this year. If the oil price but a longer time near the $ 100 mark, so this is a tax increase equal to that affect consumer spending and growth. Each one cent increase in gasoline costs the American consumer about a billion dollars a year. The gasoline price by a dollar, then this would be a burden of 100 billion dollars for the consumer.




The consumer sentiment is the end of February to the highest level (blue arrow) in three years (light green arrow) increased. The lows (three red arrows), there were during the recession of 2008-2009 and have now been overcome significantly. The recent oil price rise may have adversely affected the good mood in the coming weeks.



Shares of Bank of America is only slightly above my purchase level of $ 12 - $ 14 (marked blue). From $ 20 wins are to be taken (pink label). Two years ago, the price falls below the $ 4 mark fell and thereby offered an almost unique Buying opportunity. In just a few months, the stock rose 400% (green arrow) . I recommended taking profits on the Hotline each have the $ 18 mark.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 7 March.

Heiko Thieme

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100% in 2 years are crucial

This week it was generally at a rapid pace up. The price of silver reached with an increase of over 9% (green arrow) in first place and climbed to its highest level in 31 years. The S & P 500 Index has since early December risen without any significant interruptions almost 14%. Such a pace of around 60% plus in the long run, however, is not tenable. In economics and politics, there are many unsolved problems of the stock market can not be ignored indefinitely. However, I did not expect an imminent end of this nearly two-year bull market, but with only short interruptions or technical reasons Corrections.

Retail sales in January were expected with an increase of 0.3% (red arrow) is less than universal. The seven-month recovery trend (green shading) has waned considerably since November. Compared with the previous year, the increase of nearly 8% (blue arrow) is satisfactory only at first glance. Part of the improvement stems from those significantly higher gasoline prices. Despite all the weakness in the retail sector from the second half of 2008 (pink shading) been overcome.

The inflation issue more and more filled the headlines in the financial press. As a warning are strongly rising food prices and energy costs. Nevertheless, the general trend of prices continues to moderate. The core rate - excluding energy and food - just below the one percent mark (green line), while the overall rate is 1.7% (blue arrow). The central bank is therefore not in a tight spot.

The bull market in stocks on 10 March two year old and thus corresponds to the time average of the 27 bull markets since 1929, although the increase is nearly 100% in the S & P 500 Index as 25% above the average increase of 80%. A doubling in two years, an increase of 40% per year. Of the 27 bull markets, there were only four, lasting longer and had a larger index rises to 100%. The air is so thin. Therefore, gains should be protected. The silver tops the table above and hit the gold since March 2009 significantly.

Previous winners on the Dow Jones and Dax since March 2009, Bank of America, with an increase of over 500%, which, however, was reached in April 2010, and Infineon, with gains of 2,200%! Both titles have been recommended in the blog and on the hotline two years ago.

Further analysis and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 28 February. On Monday, 21 February are the stock exchanges in the U.S. for Presidents' Day - in memory of President Washington and Lincoln - closed.

Heiko Thieme

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dividends

February is usually the second-worst month in stock market grows. On average, it came here in 1950 to a minus of 0.3% for the S & P 500 Index. Nothing has yet been felt. The first two weeks of February brought in an increase of 3.3%. Since early December, the Dow Jones only a week - end of January - not increased! The current status is the highest level since June 2008. From market technology creates a break is overdue.

The "peaceful" transfer of power in Egypt was on Friday acknowledged on the stock exchanges with applause and represents a new historical chapter dar. The target of the youth transition from dictatorship to democracy will take years and is significant risks. This attempt succeeds, it is the structures throughout the Middle East lasting change.

Oil prices were on a daily basis and also during the week significantly to and represents the current bottom since the beginning (red arrows). My reluctance persists here. On the stock markets went the-counter market (NASDAQ) as winner of the day and the Dax emerged as the winner of the week and past year's best (green arrows).

almost two years ago - on 9 March 2009 - Wall Street ended at the largest bear market in over 75 years. Since then there has been a remarkable recovery. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 round 75% of the residue from their highs in October 2007 again caught up. The-counter market (NASDAQ), strongly influenced by the technology sector, and the Russell 2000 Index, the small companies (small caps) are represented, even tightly moved up to their highs of 2007. The S & P 400 index of medium-sized companies (mid caps) contains, has already reached a new record high. With new record highs on the Dow Jones and S & P 500 I expect next year. The OTC market will reach its peak of 5048 in March 2000 but the earliest in the second half of this decade again.

The real - inflation adjusted - exchange gain on U.S. stock exchanges constitutes almost 2% in annual average. This statistic goes up to 1871 - the Year of German Empire - back. A more detailed analysis shows that in the first 70 years from 1871 to 1941 increase came even to any index (red arrow). Only in the 70 years from 1941 to 2010 was an index increase, which reached an annual average of just under 4% (blue arrow), but was subject to significant fluctuations.

A much better and continuous result was obtained when the dividend payments were always reinvested. Here we came upon a real return of over 6% (green line) without significant changes in the last 140 years. Thus, doubling an investment in the stock market in almost 12 years. Were $ 1,000 invested in 1871 in Wall Street, it would be today, including nominal dividends more than $ 220 million and approximately $ 4.5 million real dividends of the crucial key to success in the stock market.

The U.S. consumer is again optimistic. The barometer (blue arrow) is almost back to the same level as the middle of last year (green arrow). The lows (red arrows) from 2008 to early 2009 have been overcome despite the continuing high unemployment rate. Economic growth this year may reach the 3% mark.

recommended on the hotline I take profit on Thursday with German Stock Exchange, after the merger negotiations were announced with the New York Stock Exchange. The share price rose on Thursday € 62 on short notice and thus brought a gain of over 25% since my buy recommendation 8 weeks. A buy recommendation is against Cisco Systems in a Price below $ 19, after the quarterly results disappointing. Who has little patience can achieve in the next 12 to 15 months, a gain of over 30%. There

Other comments and recommendations is available on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 21 February.

Heiko Thieme

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function, like a plastic bag in the wind.

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Evolution.

This has been posted all over already, which is how I came across it in the first place. I just love it so much that I want to feature it again for all of you who happened to miss it: Big Bang Big Boom .

Enjoy and spread the word.