February is usually the second-worst month in stock market grows. On average, it came here in 1950 to a minus of 0.3% for the S & P 500 Index. Nothing has yet been felt. The first two weeks of February brought in an increase of 3.3%. Since early December, the Dow Jones only a week - end of January - not increased! The current status is the highest level since June 2008. From market technology creates a break is overdue.
The "peaceful" transfer of power in Egypt was on Friday acknowledged on the stock exchanges with applause and represents a new historical chapter dar. The target of the youth transition from dictatorship to democracy will take years and is significant risks. This attempt succeeds, it is the structures throughout the Middle East lasting change.
Oil prices were on a daily basis and also during the week significantly to and represents the current bottom since the beginning (red arrows). My reluctance persists here. On the stock markets went the-counter market (NASDAQ) as winner of the day and the Dax emerged as the winner of the week and past year's best (green arrows).
almost two years ago - on 9 March 2009 - Wall Street ended at the largest bear market in over 75 years. Since then there has been a remarkable recovery. The Dow Jones and S & P 500 round 75% of the residue from their highs in October 2007 again caught up. The-counter market (NASDAQ), strongly influenced by the technology sector, and the Russell 2000 Index, the small companies (small caps) are represented, even tightly moved up to their highs of 2007. The S & P 400 index of medium-sized companies (mid caps) contains, has already reached a new record high. With new record highs on the Dow Jones and S & P 500 I expect next year. The OTC market will reach its peak of 5048 in March 2000 but the earliest in the second half of this decade again.
The real - inflation adjusted - exchange gain on U.S. stock exchanges constitutes almost 2% in annual average. This statistic goes up to 1871 - the Year of German Empire - back. A more detailed analysis shows that in the first 70 years from 1871 to 1941 increase came even to any index (red arrow). Only in the 70 years from 1941 to 2010 was an index increase, which reached an annual average of just under 4% (blue arrow), but was subject to significant fluctuations.
A much better and continuous result was obtained when the dividend payments were always reinvested. Here we came upon a real return of over 6% (green line) without significant changes in the last 140 years. Thus, doubling an investment in the stock market in almost 12 years. Were $ 1,000 invested in 1871 in Wall Street, it would be today, including nominal dividends more than $ 220 million and approximately $ 4.5 million real dividends of the crucial key to success in the stock market.
The U.S. consumer is again optimistic. The barometer (blue arrow) is almost back to the same level as the middle of last year (green arrow). The lows (red arrows) from 2008 to early 2009 have been overcome despite the continuing high unemployment rate. Economic growth this year may reach the 3% mark.
recommended on the hotline I take profit on Thursday with German Stock Exchange, after the merger negotiations were announced with the New York Stock Exchange. The share price rose on Thursday € 62 on short notice and thus brought a gain of over 25% since my buy recommendation 8 weeks. A buy recommendation is against Cisco Systems in a Price below $ 19, after the quarterly results disappointing. Who has little patience can achieve in the next 12 to 15 months, a gain of over 30%. There
Other comments and recommendations is available on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 21 February.
Heiko Thieme
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