is the beginning of December, the Dow Jones in an almost unbroken ten-week uptrend that has been an increase of almost 10%. Only once did two weeks ago to a negligible interruption. The current index level was last seen in June 2008. The Dax is even at the highest level in three years. With a new record high of 8150 at least I expect later this year.
The January as already concluded the five-day indicator in positive territory. This increases the likelihood of a positive stock market year to around 95%, which virtually amounts to a guarantee. Since In 1950 there were 28 years when both the five-day indicator and the entire January showed an increase. In 26 of those years there was an annual increase. In one case - 1994 - the S & P 500 lost only 1.5%, offset by dividends from income. Only in 1966 came to an annual decline of 13%.
Despite these positive statistics, however, also some question marks that can not be answered. The political unrest in Egypt, will challenge not only the entire Middle East, but also employ the rest of the world. The oil supply may be affected. Although I continue to falling oil price up to $ 75 per barrel consider possible is at least a temporary increase over the $ 100 mark can not be excluded.
On the currency sector of the euro and dollar are exposed to the favor of the speculators, which can lead to considerable distortions. My strategy here remains unchanged. From $ 1.40 to the euro, the U.S. dollar is worth buying, while the euro interest at $ 1.30.
Large budget deficits can become a permanent burden. At present, the central banks are, however, their hands tied, as it mainly comes to promoting economic growth. A repeated sliding into a recession must be avoided at all costs. This danger is not the moment. President Obama should be in the next 21 months on the job creation focus in order to secure his re-election in November 2012. This is a real challenge.
Despite these question marks to continue the bull market in stocks, albeit with fluctuations, this year. In the precious metals silver could relax a little bit (two green arrows), but without changing my reservation. Gold is the current losers (red arrow) since the beginning. Shares are, however, the winner (green arrow) with an increase of about 4% of the known indices.
The latest U.S. employment data raise some question marks. The number of new jobs stood at 36,000 ( green arrow) below expectations. They had expected to demVierfachen. was compared with the previous year, only an increase of 0.8% (blue arrow), which is far below normal is a recovery since the massive reduction of jobs (pink shading) until early 2010, there is no stable development the labor market came. The initial improvement ( green shading) was based primarily on temporary jobs because of the national population survey to then again redundancy (little pink shading and red arrow) to produce. This issue is a priority for President Obama.
A positive surprise was the sharp decline in the unemployment rate to 9% (green arrow), but this to evaluate more than a statistical exception. To his re-election In November 2012, President Obama, the unemployment rate back as close to the 7.7% mark (red line) back, which existed at his inauguration in January 2009 (red arrow). This is not an easy task!
A detailed analysis shows that unemployment among primary insufficient trainees - No degree - (red arrow) occurs. While it accounts for 14% in this segment, the unemployment rate for university graduates (blue arrow) is only slightly above 4%. Who has only a degree or partial studies must be completed with an unemployment rate expected by 8% to 9% (green arrow). A good education thus contributes fruit. Those who learn nothing stays on the track.
The manufacturing industry has changed in America from the deep recession in late 2008 (red arrow) is now recovered significantly and is at the highest level in seven years. In Europe often-heard criticism that America has no more industrial production is contradicted by this.
also in the service sector - agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communication, wholesale and retail - it's in the past two years have been major improvements (green arrow). This is a good sign for Obama. These statistics indicate n ä namely point out that it is in the course of this year significantly more hiring. The labor sector is lagging behind is well known behind the general economic development.
My Recommended by German bank at a price below 40 € (green line) is already fruit again. Within 10 weeks the stock rose by 25% and is now broken out of the downward trend (red line) (green arrow). My minimum target of 50 euros this year is likely to prove too conservative. Positions are to be kept here and continue to secure from 50 € to a stop. Currently, I continue to recommend the Commerzbank between 5.50 € and 6.00 € with a target price of 7.50 €.
more comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on 14 February.
Heiko Thieme
The manufacturing industry has changed in America from the deep recession in late 2008 (red arrow) is now recovered significantly and is at the highest level in seven years. In Europe often-heard criticism that America has no more industrial production is contradicted by this.
also in the service sector - agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communication, wholesale and retail - it's in the past two years have been major improvements (green arrow). This is a good sign for Obama. These statistics indicate n ä namely point out that it is in the course of this year significantly more hiring. The labor sector is lagging behind is well known behind the general economic development.
My Recommended by German bank at a price below 40 € (green line) is already fruit again. Within 10 weeks the stock rose by 25% and is now broken out of the downward trend (red line) (green arrow). My minimum target of 50 euros this year is likely to prove too conservative. Positions are to be kept here and continue to secure from 50 € to a stop. Currently, I continue to recommend the Commerzbank between 5.50 € and 6.00 € with a target price of 7.50 €.
more comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on 14 February.
Heiko Thieme
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