The overdue respite in the stock markets came in this morning. The reason for this provided the riots in Libya that led to a sharp increase in oil price (green arrow), with even the $ 100 mark temporarily has been exceeded. The price gap between oil and gas currently makes barrels to almost $ 80 from base. Not fundamental facts - there is enough oil available, but pure speculation drives the 'black gold' in the air. There is no logical price point, it no longer, as the economic sense is excluded right now. In such an emotional speculation I'd rather stay spectators. Only a price drop to $ 80 a barrel would arouse my interest to buy again. This may take several months. Patience is sometimes necessary to a Virtue.
The February end at the most exchanges with high probability in positive territory. However, the rise on Wall Street and fail in Germany is not as spectacular as it appeared a week ago. The respite has taken the wind out of these sails. Especially when there was Dax this week (red arrow) significant setbacks, after beginning of the week was still a new annual high.
the precious metals sector is currently more driven by emotion rather than rationality, so I also like the oil remains passive. Technically speaking the price of silver can even now return to the absolute highs of around $ 50 per ounce (blue arrow) remains above 30 years . Rise Such a level would not last.
The euro has recovered from its weakness at the beginning again, and now is testing the resistance level of $ 1.38 (red line). My recommendation remains unchanged here. Under $ 1.30 (green line), the euro is attractive, from $ 1.40 the $ interesting. The purchasing power parity based my strategy.
The American economic growth in the fourth quarter (+2.8%) is not as robust as originally adopted (+3.2). Year on year the increase was 2.7%, confirming my prediction a year ago. The U.S. central bank and the government is hoping for a slightly stronger growth this year. If the oil price but a longer time near the $ 100 mark, so this is a tax increase equal to that affect consumer spending and growth. Each one cent increase in gasoline costs the American consumer about a billion dollars a year. The gasoline price by a dollar, then this would be a burden of 100 billion dollars for the consumer.
The consumer sentiment is the end of February to the highest level (blue arrow) in three years (light green arrow) increased. The lows (three red arrows), there were during the recession of 2008-2009 and have now been overcome significantly. The recent oil price rise may have adversely affected the good mood in the coming weeks.
Shares of Bank of America is only slightly above my purchase level of $ 12 - $ 14 (marked blue). From $ 20 wins are to be taken (pink label). Two years ago, the price falls below the $ 4 mark fell and thereby offered an almost unique Buying opportunity. In just a few months, the stock rose 400% (green arrow) . I recommended taking profits on the Hotline each have the $ 18 mark.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 7 March.
Heiko Thieme
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