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Political Stock Exchange

The strong selling pressure was destroyed on Friday, even as a safe believed weeks gain in Wall Street. Often enough but one day, a recent trend reversed to . Transform The coming Monday will make over the course of January, the ultimate verdict. If, again to a similar decline as on Friday, there would be a negative January, which I assume not. The reason for the sudden pessimism this time was neither industry nor company specific news, but the political deterioration in Egypt. Hence the title of this blog - Policy Exchange. The policy has at times a strong influence on the stock market. The Middle East is facing a new political challenge that could change the whole structure of this region sustainable. By this insecurity and precious metals also benefited the oil price. While oil to the winner of the day (blue arrow in the first column), was there most days of losses in the stock market in the technology sector, which is in the OTC market (NASDAQ) particularly strong (red arrow). The weekly comparison, the silver was ahead (blue arrow) and the S & P 500 Index back. Former winner of the year, the German DAX (blue arrow), whereas the silver (red arrow) with a drop of almost 10% in last position.

The first estimate gives a real growth of 3.2% for the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2010, the world's largest economy expanded by 2.8% (green arrow), confirming my prediction 12 months ago. For six quarters now holds on the upswing (blue shading). The worst recession since World War II (red shading) is overcome so successfully. One danger of an imminent recession is renewed. The nadir of a decline of four percent was reached in early 2009 (red arrow). For this year, the growth potential is estimated between 3% to 4%.

wages have a moderate increase of 1.6% (blue arrow) no inflationary pressure. While the increase in Beschäftigunskosten including health insurance and vacation pay here 10 years ago about four percent (red circle), so concerning ä gt he now only two percent (green arrow). The Tiefstniveau of less than 1.5% was reached a year ago (green circle). The inflation issue more of it appeared in the headlines, but it is not yet acute. However, many raw materials have already risen more strongly and can thus contribute to a general price increase.

it was in the building sector at the end of an encouraging statistic. The sale of new buildings rose in December by 18% (green arrow). However, there is the current level (green line) is still well below the average for the past four years. The reason for the recent increase is primarily due to the higher mortgage interest rates (red circle) and the fear that it could lead to further increases in interest rates here. A look at the beginning of the year shows that it will come again to lower revenue in the sale of new buildings. A sustained positive trend can be seen not so. Nevertheless remain Bauaktien interesting, though not without risk.

Consumer confidence has improved significantly in January (green arrow). Two Years (red arrow) were seen here the lows. Even at retail since it is (red shading) to a sustainable recovery trend (blue shading) arrived.

The price of gold has experienced in the past 10 years, an impressive development. In early 2001 the price had fallen to oz $ 255. The previous high of $ 1,422 was seen at year end. The current consolidation (green arrow) has the upward trend not compromised. The unrest in the Middle East can quickly trigger a renewed buying interest. Nevertheless, I remain cautious and would only make purchases under $ 1,250.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on 7 February.

Heiko Thieme

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stars.

so you look for a hero
someone to look after you

a priviliged role model

for a lost mind in search for rules

of actions and reactions.       

                                                                                  but the stars you're watching

are surreal and mislead

and don't know how to satisfy

the greed of knowing how

to act and react.

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parking lots.

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correction in precious metals

The biblical phrase "the first shall be last" is also true in the stock market. Precious metals were the clear winner last year, there are now at the beginning of the clear losers (three red arrows). The end of this correction has not been reached. The silver price can fall below the $ 25 mark. For gold, a decrease by a further $ 100 is quite possible. To a complete collapse, there will not. The highs will be tested in the course of the year. Gold can reach $ 1,500 per troy ounce.

I expect the stock market with a sideways movement followed by the end of January by a slight selling pressure in February, before it goes up again in March. Of course, such an assessment to move very quickly. Flexibility is required. Good quarterly results do not always lead to further price increases, there is already contained much of the imagination in the current prices.

The Dow Jones is eight weeks in an uptrend and may not hold this pace, without a break. The optimism among investors is now very pronounced and thus more of a warning signal. However, I am not expecting a full correction of 10% to 15% in the coming weeks, but expect it until after April.

Obama speaks Tuesday to Congress on the situation of the nation. He must be the Republicans, who have won the House majority in November, bringing on a political course of the middle. His popularity has improved somewhat in recent weeks since the election defeat in congressional elections in November.

In the manufacturing industry were in America in the past Year created 136 000 new jobs. Before that it was in 1997 in this sector to nearly 6 million layoffs. This positive reversal of trend will continue this year with more than 300,000 new jobs and thus have some 12 million workers. Thus, America remains the leading country in the industrial sector, which covers only about 9% of all jobs.

The private residential construction is still in a trough, which lasts two years (light green arrow), without having to show an immediate improvement . Within a year, construction activity had around 1.1 million units more than halved (red arrow) and were at the December at an annual rate of 529,000 housing starts. One bright spot, however, are building permits in December attracted significantly. Bauaktien have improved significantly for several months. KB Home (KBH - $ 14.8) was recommended several times here and on the hotline and has reached the end of August around 50%. My price target is $ 20 to the end. Stop hedging is recommended now.

The S & P 400 Index rose on Tuesday to a new peak. Since 9 March 2009 when this bull market began (red arrow), this index has risen about 130% (green arrow). The index includes medium-sized companies with market capitalization between $ 2 billion to $ 10 billion in 10 sectors. The index itself has a market capitalization of around $ 1.1 trillion, representing around 7% of all listed U.S. stocks. Again, a technical breather is overdue. The end of this bull market is still far away!

care fraud! Last week was a buy rating a Hungarian stock via the Internet sent in my name with image. This is a forgery and blatant fraud. The Federal Criminal Police Office in Germany has been informed by me about it. Steer clear of such fraudulent activities! In the Internet age, unfortunately, any name can be misused. My only suggestion is it on this blog or the hotline, and in interviews on television and lectures from me.

On Monday afternoon, 24 Interviewed in January, I'll DAF Andreas Scholz and on Thursday evening at 18:20 at N24 Clock Dietmar Deffner.

Further analysis and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 31 January.

Heiko Thieme

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staring at ghosts.

sure: you can believe in whatever you want

but you will never turn into a ghost just from belief

and you will always be responsible for what you have done.

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Schnee essen Kehle auf.

Sometimes snow but only ashes and we run out and take pleasure in a born-again winter and laugh and tear on their mouths and stick out their tongues and show its teeth and eat nothing but ash and choke you. Gone with ashes no longer, when inserted in a groove and it satisfies hunger or thirst.

In a world of ash and danger lurks around every corner in every corner of the fear. Dark gray and we see nothing more, and feel our way on walls and bushes along and hear anything, just breathing and perhaps only his own. Fear of raids and monsters and disappointment and fear of embarrassment and, a stumbling block and a barrier and fear of the silence and the heartbeat that is too loud in their ears. But what is going to happen one of a world where everything is dissected, which is strange. With a little courage the hunted becomes the hunter. Breathe quietly and hold his hand to protect and on the other hand hold when entering the number combination on the ATMs and provide no insight into the liquidity and in the soul and the fears and weaknesses. But: Fear Eats the Soul and fear paralyze limbs and lips and the face and we stop and seize anything more, and still and maybe a little too late. The ash eats by himself because we once laughed too much and shouted and danced in the supposed snow.

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Streusel.

all see what I want sprinkles are and how they fall into glasses and cups and cups of spoons. As they are hard and rough and soft shall pass away in the crowd and in the heat and at the tip of the tongue. How they are distributed all over the floor and wood and paper, and the pants like snowflakes, only a few crystal form andor similar. I lick my index finger and push around on the wood and crunching is sweet hanging on my skin and crunching I crush it into powder and ignore the voices around me and the rates and debates and definitions and conflicts and dissolve in my tea and milk to nothing more crunches.

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Verfolgungsnummer.

And there is nothing. Only silence. Scratching when the fingers through his hair and pull on the shoulder coming to rest. No difference between heard and felt sounds and scenes. I look around and see nothing. Blurred figures and sentences and not far away actually. Raindrops patter on windows and glass doors and leave strips, interrupted by irregularities, such as the weather is so. Rates falling from balconies out into the air. We blow words of hands in the night and the day and send them on ways and they never come to you. No tracking number for thought and No customs fees or shipping agents and any personal message in the traffic out there. Only horn and a dog that barks, and a man who shouts, and several men who want to drink and sing, and I look down and go over and watch my shoe lace, not as I put in it. We hold on to shoe laces and walking speed and table edges and leisure time. We hold ourselves to work and money and coffee and milk, and shelves of pictures and words and memories. Just not together.

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respite overdue




The current upward trend lasts for seven weeks! Nothing like this has recently announced in May 2007 and is very rare. A reprieve is therefore overdue market reasons alone.

The news over the weekend that the 55-year-old chef and (co)-founder of Apple, Steve Jobs, the company has left for health reasons, at least temporarily, on Tuesday provide a generally weak Boerseneroeffnung and the stock price of Apple under considerable pressure . share On Monday, when Wall Street because of the Martin Luther King holiday was closed, Apple has been listed in Frankfurt nearly 7% lower. On Friday the stock was increased to a record high of over $ 348; four and a half years ago, in July 2006, the share price stood at $ 52! The market capitalization of $ 321 billion is the second highest among all companies in the world. Only the oil giant Exxon Mobil comes with $ 396 Billion to an even higher rating. My current assessment is to be found on the Apple hotline.

precious metals are year to date under selling pressure after the sector in the past year led. Silver is the most affected (red arrows) to its annual increase of over 80%. Further price weakness is likely, however, in significant fluctuations.

The euro is worth buying under $ 1.30; the oil I remain cautious.

The initial applications for Arbeitlslosenunterstützung have recently increased again significantly (green arrow), which provides an immediate improvement in the labor market in question. However, there have been several times in the past, such temporary deterioration, without the recovery trend since April 2009 (red arrow) should be repealed. Only the next few weeks will allow a more precise statement here, said the four week average (red line) is to be observed.

expanding the retail since the middle (blue shading). The sales were in December with $ 380 billion, the highest in history and are nearly 8% (green arrow) on the previous year, which is in striking contrast to the weak Umsätzten two years ago (red arrow). The December increase was 0.6% (blue arrow), although somewhat lower than in November (+0.8), but , the retail sale of its holiday season, which began in November, be satisfied.

A slight question mark begs the latest survey of consumer sentiment, where there was a slight decrease (light green arrow). However, it is located well above the low of November 2008 (red arrow). The continuing high unemployment rate certainly affects the barometer, but without stifling economic growth. Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks of a potential for growth this year was accepted by 3% -4%, which is more than just a few months. Its low interest rate policy is bearing fruit.

Consumer prices in December increased by 0.5%, considerably more than in the previous month (+0.1). The primary reason for this was due to higher energy costs. Gasoline prices are, for example, almost 20% higher than last year! Nor are the rates of inflation (core inflation - green arrow and in full rate - blue arrow) to a moderate level of well below two percent. The risk of escalation to the peak of mid-2008 (yellow arrow) of over 5% is not given. Also a risk of deflation is still 18 months (red arrow) does not exist. Nevertheless, the inflation issue is back because of the sharp rise in raw materials globally more and more in the headlines.

Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will be available on Monday, 24 January.

Heiko Thieme

Acceptable Body Temperature 96.5

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Why Does My Computer Keep Lagging?

no, really: i'm serious.