The strong selling pressure was destroyed on Friday, even as a safe believed weeks gain in Wall Street. Often enough but one day, a recent trend reversed to . Transform The coming Monday will make over the course of January, the ultimate verdict. If, again to a similar decline as on Friday, there would be a negative January, which I assume not. The reason for the sudden pessimism this time was neither industry nor company specific news, but the political deterioration in Egypt. Hence the title of this blog - Policy Exchange. The policy has at times a strong influence on the stock market. The Middle East is facing a new political challenge that could change the whole structure of this region sustainable. By this insecurity and precious metals also benefited the oil price. While oil to the winner of the day (blue arrow in the first column), was there most days of losses in the stock market in the technology sector, which is in the OTC market (NASDAQ) particularly strong (red arrow). The weekly comparison, the silver was ahead (blue arrow) and the S & P 500 Index back. Former winner of the year, the German DAX (blue arrow), whereas the silver (red arrow) with a drop of almost 10% in last position.
The first estimate gives a real growth of 3.2% for the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2010, the world's largest economy expanded by 2.8% (green arrow), confirming my prediction 12 months ago. For six quarters now holds on the upswing (blue shading). The worst recession since World War II (red shading) is overcome so successfully. One danger of an imminent recession is renewed. The nadir of a decline of four percent was reached in early 2009 (red arrow). For this year, the growth potential is estimated between 3% to 4%.
wages have a moderate increase of 1.6% (blue arrow) no inflationary pressure. While the increase in Beschäftigunskosten including health insurance and vacation pay here 10 years ago about four percent (red circle), so concerning ä gt he now only two percent (green arrow). The Tiefstniveau of less than 1.5% was reached a year ago (green circle). The inflation issue more of it appeared in the headlines, but it is not yet acute. However, many raw materials have already risen more strongly and can thus contribute to a general price increase.
it was in the building sector at the end of an encouraging statistic. The sale of new buildings rose in December by 18% (green arrow). However, there is the current level (green line) is still well below the average for the past four years. The reason for the recent increase is primarily due to the higher mortgage interest rates (red circle) and the fear that it could lead to further increases in interest rates here. A look at the beginning of the year shows that it will come again to lower revenue in the sale of new buildings. A sustained positive trend can be seen not so. Nevertheless remain Bauaktien interesting, though not without risk.
Consumer confidence has improved significantly in January (green arrow). Two Years (red arrow) were seen here the lows. Even at retail since it is (red shading) to a sustainable recovery trend (blue shading) arrived.
The price of gold has experienced in the past 10 years, an impressive development. In early 2001 the price had fallen to oz $ 255. The previous high of $ 1,422 was seen at year end. The current consolidation (green arrow) has the upward trend not compromised. The unrest in the Middle East can quickly trigger a renewed buying interest. Nevertheless, I remain cautious and would only make purchases under $ 1,250.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear in a week on 7 February.
Heiko Thieme
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