signaled the first week of 2011, a buy signal, which has a remarkably high accuracy of 87%. The S & P 500 Index on the fifth trading day of the new year with the final score of the previous year, there have been since 1950 to an annual increase of about 14% average. In the 38 years when the S & P was 500 in the first five days in Plus, there were only five cases, no annual increase! My forecast for this year proceeds from a potential index of at least 15%. However, there will be no linear progression, but similar to last year experience a significant volatility. During the year, again a correction can be at least 10%. Currently the stock is overbought after a six-week uptrend technical perspective. Investors should wait for a price weakness, rather than buying in a rising market.
precious metals and oil have had a weak start. The selling pressure is still not over. Caution is still called for. The euro came under pressure for several days and is now back in his purchasing power bandwidth reached $ 1.30 - from $ 1.20.
The American industry has been on an improving trend September again (light green arrow). Prior to the recovery (dark green arrow) was interrupted for five months (pink shading) have been. This index is made up of a survey of nearly 400 companies from 60 sectors. This includes agriculture, mining, property development, transportation companies, communications and trade and retail. With further improvements in the course to be expected.
The U.S. labor market remains a problem that can not be solved quickly. The slump (pink shading) is for one year (blue shading) overcome. The low point (red arrow) was achieved in mid 2009. In December, while creating 113 000 new jobs, but that number was far more optimistic of expectations. The simultaneous decline in the unemployment rate from 9.8% to 9.4% was only the fact that many people are responsible for seeking a job. Although 2009 were created over 1.1 million new jobs (green arrow), the unemployment rate fell, since far more people were added to the labor market. It takes only about 150,000 new jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate only constant!
came in the last ten years in the labor market to significant fluctuations. The highest pay of employees was seen in late 2007 with around 138 million. Then came the recession to an enormous wave of layoffs, so that today fewer people are employed in the U.S. 10 years ago.
The first decade of the new millennium was by far the worst since 1940 for the labor market. Unlike previous decades, no job created, but jobs were lost even (red question mark). The new decade just one year shows a slight improvement, but is now back well below the standard 1940 to 1999.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will follow on Tuesday, 18 January, because Monday is a holiday in the USA.
Heiko Thieme
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