The current upward trend lasts for seven weeks! Nothing like this has recently announced in May 2007 and is very rare. A reprieve is therefore overdue market reasons alone.
The news over the weekend that the 55-year-old chef and (co)-founder of Apple, Steve Jobs, the company has left for health reasons, at least temporarily, on Tuesday provide a generally weak Boerseneroeffnung and the stock price of Apple under considerable pressure . share On Monday, when Wall Street because of the Martin Luther King holiday was closed, Apple has been listed in Frankfurt nearly 7% lower. On Friday the stock was increased to a record high of over $ 348; four and a half years ago, in July 2006, the share price stood at $ 52! The market capitalization of $ 321 billion is the second highest among all companies in the world. Only the oil giant Exxon Mobil comes with $ 396 Billion to an even higher rating. My current assessment is to be found on the Apple hotline.
precious metals are year to date under selling pressure after the sector in the past year led. Silver is the most affected (red arrows) to its annual increase of over 80%. Further price weakness is likely, however, in significant fluctuations.
The euro is worth buying under $ 1.30; the oil I remain cautious.
The initial applications for Arbeitlslosenunterstützung have recently increased again significantly (green arrow), which provides an immediate improvement in the labor market in question. However, there have been several times in the past, such temporary deterioration, without the recovery trend since April 2009 (red arrow) should be repealed. Only the next few weeks will allow a more precise statement here, said the four week average (red line) is to be observed.
expanding the retail since the middle (blue shading). The sales were in December with $ 380 billion, the highest in history and are nearly 8% (green arrow) on the previous year, which is in striking contrast to the weak Umsätzten two years ago (red arrow). The December increase was 0.6% (blue arrow), although somewhat lower than in November (+0.8), but , the retail sale of its holiday season, which began in November, be satisfied.
A slight question mark begs the latest survey of consumer sentiment, where there was a slight decrease (light green arrow). However, it is located well above the low of November 2008 (red arrow). The continuing high unemployment rate certainly affects the barometer, but without stifling economic growth. Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks of a potential for growth this year was accepted by 3% -4%, which is more than just a few months. Its low interest rate policy is bearing fruit.
Consumer prices in December increased by 0.5%, considerably more than in the previous month (+0.1). The primary reason for this was due to higher energy costs. Gasoline prices are, for example, almost 20% higher than last year! Nor are the rates of inflation (core inflation - green arrow and in full rate - blue arrow) to a moderate level of well below two percent. The risk of escalation to the peak of mid-2008 (yellow arrow) of over 5% is not given. Also a risk of deflation is still 18 months (red arrow) does not exist. Nevertheless, the inflation issue is back because of the sharp rise in raw materials globally more and more in the headlines.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will be available on Monday, 24 January.
Heiko Thieme
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