This week it was generally at a rapid pace up. The price of silver reached with an increase of over 9% (green arrow) in first place and climbed to its highest level in 31 years. The S & P 500 Index has since early December risen without any significant interruptions almost 14%. Such a pace of around 60% plus in the long run, however, is not tenable. In economics and politics, there are many unsolved problems of the stock market can not be ignored indefinitely. However, I did not expect an imminent end of this nearly two-year bull market, but with only short interruptions or technical reasons Corrections.
Retail sales in January were expected with an increase of 0.3% (red arrow) is less than universal. The seven-month recovery trend (green shading) has waned considerably since November. Compared with the previous year, the increase of nearly 8% (blue arrow) is satisfactory only at first glance. Part of the improvement stems from those significantly higher gasoline prices. Despite all the weakness in the retail sector from the second half of 2008 (pink shading) been overcome.
The inflation issue more and more filled the headlines in the financial press. As a warning are strongly rising food prices and energy costs. Nevertheless, the general trend of prices continues to moderate. The core rate - excluding energy and food - just below the one percent mark (green line), while the overall rate is 1.7% (blue arrow). The central bank is therefore not in a tight spot.
The bull market in stocks on 10 March two year old and thus corresponds to the time average of the 27 bull markets since 1929, although the increase is nearly 100% in the S & P 500 Index as 25% above the average increase of 80%. A doubling in two years, an increase of 40% per year. Of the 27 bull markets, there were only four, lasting longer and had a larger index rises to 100%. The air is so thin. Therefore, gains should be protected. The silver tops the table above and hit the gold since March 2009 significantly.
Previous winners on the Dow Jones and Dax since March 2009, Bank of America, with an increase of over 500%, which, however, was reached in April 2010, and Infineon, with gains of 2,200%! Both titles have been recommended in the blog and on the hotline two years ago.
Further analysis and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 28 February. On Monday, 21 February are the stock exchanges in the U.S. for Presidents' Day - in memory of President Washington and Lincoln - closed.
Heiko Thieme
0 comments:
Post a Comment