After an almost uninterrupted stock market rally since early September, it came to Wall Street this week for the first time to take a respite. In Germany the Dax ended up only slightly in the red. By the end I expect somewhat higher rates than before. The potential lies in the Dow Jones 11500-12000, while the Dax may rise to 7,000. was
The greatest loss is in the precious metals sector. After the gold price had reached the beginning of week a new high of almost $ 1,410, began a significant selling pressure. Profit-taking after such a strong rise is normal. When silver was the reaction after this the $ 29 mark was reached per troy ounce, even more pronounced (red arrows) and led to a correction of over 10% in three days. However, the silver price is an increase of over 50% since the start (green arrow) remains well ahead. Volatility will be seen in precious metals in the coming weeks. My recommendation to take profits at least partially, remains. The oil price was under selling pressure after the This year's range was exceeded in the short term. Here, too, my reserve is still valid.
The euro is due to further financial concerns of some euro countries such as Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece for nearly two weeks' time pressure. What is overlooked here is that the U.S. also has a historically high debt ratio, which justifies a sustained dollar strength no. However, the dollar is currently almost 10% below its purchasing power parity against the euro, which meant that the monetary sector will be shaped in the coming months of volatility.
A comparison between Dow Jones and the Gold shows how this correlation has changed for the gold. 1999 still had to pay rich almost 45 ounces of gold for the Dow Jones, today some eight ounces of gold to a Dow Jones to buy certificate. This is a decline of over 80% within 11 years. Currently the upper level (red line) of the trend channel is being tested once again. So far it has been enforced since 1999, the gold as a better investment. A further acceleration of this trend, I believe, however unlikely, as I expect in this decade with a new peak in the Dow Jones up to 20,000 and the gold price at $ 5,000 see per troy ounce.
Apple has with some $ 290 billion is now the third highest market capitalization among all listed companies in the world. The largest company is the U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil with $ 362 billion. followed by PetroChina, with $ 334 billion market capitalization. 10 years ago gave many of the computer manufacturer Apple's little chance of survival than the share price had fallen to $ 10. Meanwhile, the value listed at $ 316 and holds about $ 50 billion in cash. End of June at a price of $ 272 I recommended to take profits. Then the stock price fell to $ 240 to the end of August. As I expected an even lower price, I missed the return. At current levels I would again reduce positions if they still have. even more spectacular than Apple was the share price of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters in the past decade. While Apple rose about 1,100% since the beginning of 2000, increased the share price of the coffee manufacturer to nearly 11,000%, making it the winner among all U.S. stocks in this nearly 11-year period. While investors in Apple made $ 1,000 in 11 years made $ 12,000, investors came to Green Mountain Coffee Roasters to an impressive $ 110,000! The Dow Jones, however, is now roughly back to where he was almost 11 years ago. Stock selection and timing determine investment success. The price-earnings ratio (PER) of over 30, I rate the coffee producers to profit-taking .
The construction sector is in the U.S. is still in crisis. In the latest three years but should also here the floor is not found. Since the stock market anticipates such a thing to double from current level of KB Homes would be more of a pessimistic forecast. Current market price is around 85% below the maximum rate of just over five years. My purchase level is between $ 10 to $ 13 at the current rate of just under $ 13 A recommendation for patient investors, the short-term price fluctuations do not make them nervous.
Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog appear on Monday, 23 November.
Heiko Thieme
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