market players have every reason to celebrate. The October, often referred to as disaster months, was at his best this time. Which occurred at a distance three largest losses in the Dow Jones over the past 110 years in October, namely 1929 and 1987. Nevertheless, the October is better than its reputation. Of the 35 bull markets since 1900 began in October and seven more than in any other month. In general, October is the best month to start is in the stock market. This time, the Dow Jones, in October to three percent, while the-counter market (NASDAQ) even came to nearly twice as much. Also, the Dax was able to use see an increase of six percent can be smooth.
the precious metals sector struck in October. The gold rose to a record high and missed it, the $ 1,400 mark just as the silver reached a 30-year peak above $ 24 per ounce. Although the potential is still not completely exhausted, I recommend a partial profit-taking, because after such a spectacular rise to consolidate up to the correction of 15% from 5% to be possible.
The oil price has been hampered by the $ 85 per barrel. My reluctance remains here and is discussed regularly on the hotline. The euro can not the $ 1.40 barrier so far . Take From $ 1.45, I advise to sell the euro, as the purchasing power parity is at $ 1.25
By November the strongest half-year period on Wall Street. Who since 1950, the end of October the S & P 500 invested and six months later, sold the end of April this index (dark blue line) is close to the result of the S & P 500 (light blue line) approach. If, however, invested only in the six-month period from May to October, we shall have since 1950, barely moved from the spot (green line).
Since May 2010, the S & P 500 fell slightly despite the sharp increase in September and October (- 0.3%). In the next six months, I reckon the other hand, with an index increase of at least seven percent. The Dow Jones can certainly exceed the 12,000 mark. To new highs, it will come before the middle of this decade.
The real growth in the third quarter with an increase of 2%, slightly higher than mid-year. The economic recovery now takes five quarters (blue shading) on. The Recession (pink shading) has been overcome. The low point against the previous year was seen at minus 4% in the second quarter of 2009 (red arrow). The current growth of around 3% (green arrow) is on the generally weak growth data somewhat difficult to sustain.
In Germany, the economy is expanding this year with more than three percent and thus leads in Europe. Next year, Germany's growth will slow, however, and fight with the two percent mark.
The American consumer does not look very optimistic about the future. His mood has been stagnating for several months (right green Arrow). The recovery that began two years ago (long blue arrow) is partially evaporates again. Interest rate increases will not occur before the middle of next year. The Notenbankrat, which meets on Tuesday and Wednesday for its penultimate meeting of the year will be announced easing credit to stimulate the U.S. economy. At the same place on Tuesday midterm elections in Congress and 36 gubernatorial elections held. President Obama will lose its clear majority in the repr รค ante sent home. To do the Republicans to gain at least 39 seats. In the Senate, the Democrats will lose at least four seats, but still maintain their majority almost can. Wall Street anticipates that political change already to some extent. A clear victory for the Republicans, however, would lead to further price increases.
The labor market data end on Friday a dramatic hardly be surpassed to week.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on 8 November. The clocks are in the U.S. until 7 November switched to winter time. Therefore, the time difference from America's east coast this week, five instead of the usual six hours.
Heiko Thieme
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