The world's stock markets once again impressed weeks with a strong result. The rapid upward trend in September is far too early in the fourth quarter as ever. The Dow Jones reached for the first time since early May, the 11,000 mark. The price of gold rose to a record high. Silver also rose significantly, leading to the above table with a gain of almost 37% (green arrow) since the beginning. The euro fell from its year low of 1.20 in early June under $ now recovered significantly and is now on its purchasing power bandwidth of $ 1.20 - $ 1.30. Positions while still keeping, however, is to work with a stop, which I explain to the hotline. The oil price reached its upper range of this year's nearly $ 84 per barrel, before a discharge pressure began. Here are fighting the ghosts, while the trend. The fourth quarter promises to be anything but boring in the world of money.
The first nine months were characterized by a pronounced volatility. The first quarter was generally upward, just the euro did not follow this trend. While precious metals to rise even faster, it came in the second quarter to a general profit-taking in the stock markets and also in oil. My warnings in late April proved so correct. I advised to return to the beginning of the third quarter and had luck with the timing. The increase in July I was too quick, so I advised to take profits. After a weak August, the price explosion was followed in September, which even surprised me. The impressive results from the third quarter in most cases based on the strong increase in September, who scored his best result in 71 years. Normally, however, as the September is the weakest month of the year. As so often, there are at average data laudable exceptions, and this was one of them. Those who missed the September, went into this year so far empty. The fourth quarter starts strong, but the pace is not now in this form to quickly and by stable until year-end. Apnea associated with each boom. However, I expect to continue to be that the recent-year highs by the end of April and tested again exceeded occasionally slightly. Selection is now stocking hotline and hear a must!
Just a few days, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (NBER) has confirmed that the recession ended in mid-2009. This I had already forecast in the spring of 2009. With just under 19 months (green arrow) it was the longest recession since the Great Depression of 1929 (red arrow). Of the total of 22 recessions Since 1900, it was thus the fifth-longest (red line). The average duration of recessions in nearly 15 months (gray line). The danger of renewed recession is at present, even if economic growth weakens slightly, confirming my prediction. The U.S. central bank will do in the coming weeks, all we can to stabilize the economy.
The unemployment rate has been moving more than a year above the 9.5% mark. This placed the Democrats in the congressional elections in early November, a little is to be overcome problem dar. Obama's solid majorities in both houses of Congress not hold. Since the recession (pink shading), the unemployment rate has doubled (red arrow). A short-term relaxation is not in sight.
after the recession (pink shading), it was only for five months (green shading) to create new jobs. The reason for this was the population survey, which resulted in temporary settings of the state. Meanwhile, the survey completed and the required people are re-opened. Declining labor market data (pink shade with a question mark) are a burden for the White House dar.
The historical comparison shows that the situation is today, the U.S. labor market (red line), the rise from 2001 to 2006 (yellow line). In all other economic recoveries since 1954, the improvements in the labor market are considerably better (blue line). The commencement of recovery is marked by the black line and red arrow. The green arrow shows where the labor market today, 15 months after the recession is. The blue arrow shows how much further were the other phases of recovery to the same period. The labor market will be under pressure for months.
The American consumer is remitted (red line). Since the beginning of 2009 (blue arrow) to go back to consumer credit, after the rate of increase has previously been significantly reduced. At the same time, the debt to income has improved significantly since then (red arrow). However, this is not a good omen for retailers, especially just before the vital Christmas sales. The consumer has spent over two years no longer the engine of the U.S. economy.
Inventories of crude oil compared to the previous year (red arrow) increased significantly (green arrow). The current rise in oil prices from a fundamental perspective, therefore, makes no sense. Non-economic considerations, but speculation is currently driving the oil price. Since I'd rather stay spectators.
The Dow Jones is back there (green arrow), where he was in May 1999 (blue arrow), as the 11,000 mark (green line) for the first time has been exceeded. So disappointing this may be, but you could at the volatility earn in the past 11 years on the stock market good money. Buy and hold, however, was not a successful strategy. My buy and sell signals are marked with blue and pink shading.
Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer, has presented a positive quarterly result. Anyone who followed my recommendations, sold earlier this year when the stock traded above $ 16 (pink shading), and rose again from the end of May, a (blue shading), as the price fell below $ 11.50. Those who shopped in two or three tranches will, on average, a gain of around 20% in just under five Months. Positions are now available with a stop to secure and to reduce gradually from $ 14.50. The hotline continues to pursue this track.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on 18 October. The bond market in the U.S. on Monday because of "Columbus Day" closed. On 12 October 1492 "discovered" Christopher Columbus America. The stock markets are open, however normal.
The main event takes place but this week probably on Wednesday starting in Chile, when it comes to the rescue of miners trapped for 60 days. This is every anniversary and also stock market rally in the shadows. Click here about people and not money.
Heiko Thieme
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