The second week of October impressed with increase. Only the oil price could not follow the general upward trend in the weekly close. The current annual increase in the stock market based solely on the now 7-w ö speaking rally, the appeal before the end of September only a brief respite. Since early September, the Dow Jones and Dax risen about 10% while the S & P 500 even at 12% and was impressed by the NASDAQ OTC market) with an increase of almost 17%. In the same period, the euro was a plus recover from 11% further and thus reduced his annual decline significantly. The price of gold rose 10% and expanded it from its annual increase. The clear winner is the silver, which rose 27% and thus again reached a price level where it had last seen 30 years ago. Industrial demand is not however the reason for the recent bull market in precious metals. Primary speculation driving the current prices. This can be dangerous.
Good corporate profits motivated investors in the stock market. About 80% of the previously published quarterly results were above expectations. However, financial stocks took no part in this trend, so that any irregularities in the mortgage market become a new burden in the sector. Nevertheless, many banks are one of my recommendations. More about this on the hotline.
ended three years ago on Wall Street, the 5-year-old bull (red arrow), when reached, the Dow Jones in the second week of October, a peak of 14 165 and and the Dax down only slightly from its high of 8106 in July 2007. Just 17 months later, the bottom of the bear market in the second week of March 2009 (green arrow) reached the Dow Jones and Dax. And the subsequent new bull market trend has since almost identical. Both indices are around 20% (light green line) away from their highs (blue arrow).
The euro is now on the same level compared to the $ as three years (black line). My buy and sell recommendations based on purchasing power basis are marked and continue to apply. The pronounced volatility shows how emotional is the currency sector. With a calming is expected in the near future, hardly.
inflation remains an issue. The consumer price index is around the one percent mark in both the Core rate (0.8%) and the overall rate (1.1%). The U.S. central bank would rather see a slightly higher level of inflation up to two percent. Key interest rates will therefore remain on view at the zero point. Earliest in the second half of 2011 could occur a change here. U.S. government securities as an investment therefore remain provisional uninteresting.
retail sales in September were better than expected. The weak consumer confidence is not revealed. The recent recovery trend (blue shading) on a monthly basis, however, is not very pronounced, even if the burglary of the second half of 2008 (pink shading) is surely overcome. Since bottoming in December 2008 (red arrow), than the drop had fallen on an annual basis to a decrease of 11%, the recovery is now at a 7% increase the previous year. High unemployment and low consumer confidence, however, provide barriers to a good Christmas operation, not
Further assessments and specific recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on 25 October.
Heiko Thieme
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