The bull market continues! Although 2010 was a volatile but very successful trading year. The Dow Jones index reached in the week before Christmas my forecast of 11,500 by year end and can get something else. The Dax filled my annual forecast of 7,000 on 7 December and tested that level in the last week successfully. Again, there is still a residual potential by year end. In this shortened Christmas week can be interrupted the three-week uptrend on Wall Street temporarily, before it comes to year-end rally.
nerves are required in the coming year from investors. Part of my forecasts and recommendations are available on the Christmas card. More details will follow in the next blog. My interview of 15-DAF December from the trading floor is concerned with the outlook for 2011. The (click on) this link is:
The price of gold is happening right now a little hard to keep the $ 1,400 mark. In silver, the $ 30 level is an obstacle. An early consolidation of 5% to 10% or even correction of 10% to 15% would not be surprising. Too much euphoria at the time of these precious metals. The $ 1,200 mark for gold should consider, however. The potential for 2011 is up to the $ 1,550 mark. In silver, the percentage price risk is minus 30% and the potential for $ 35 per ounce.
points since mid-year of robust monthly retail improvements (green shading) based on an economic growth of 3% in the 4th Quarter suggest. Part of this increase was due in November but at the price increases for gasoline and food prices. Compared with the previous year has the retail sales growth of nearly 8% (green arrows). This is a significant recovery since the lows (red arrow) during the recession in the second half of 2008 (red shading) set the retail under enormous pressure.
consumer prices have developed this year, generally speaking, very moderate. The consumer price index is well below the interest to the Federal Reserve two-percent mark (green line). While the overall rate is just over one percent, the core rate is non-energy costs and food prices on only 0.7% over the previous year. The risk of deflation - a decline below the zero line (blue line) - is scarcely exist, although this was temporarily the case in 2009, even as the overall rate to minus two percent (blue arrow) was taken after a year before the increase of five percent (red arrow) was. Also for 2011, I expect no marked inflation risk, although there will be more volatile on a monthly basis. The central bank can thus continue its low interest rate policy.
Stocks of crude oil have been a few weeks, came back clear (red arrow). This is due mainly to lower imports and a rising consumption. Total time for more oil is produced globally, than is consumed. Thus, the recent price rise is not the $ 90 mark fundamental reasons justified, but is based on speculation. In the coming year, oil prices will be subject to significant fluctuations, which can even the $ 100 mark temporarily be exceeded. However, I also expect a further price fall below $ 75, then what is a buy opportunity.
The construction sector is in two years to show in a valley bottom (red shading), with no improvement trend. The mortgage crisis will continue also next year. After building value lost over 80% from their highs since 2005, this sector is interesting in two to three years term. However, such investment is suitable only for patient investors
TM = Toyota, DBK = German bank, Commerzbank CBK =; EOAN = E.on, CSCO = Cisco Systems, PFE = Pfizer
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 27 December.
Heiko Thieme
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