The order a shortened trading day Christmas week are encouraging gains. Four weeks of the upward trend has now already. Thus, the market is technically overbought and at least a short break should not be surprising. The end of this bull market that began in March 2009, is still not in sight. In 2011 a good year. However, I recommend some caution when Slber and gold. A correction of 10% to 15% after the strong price increase is justified. Even when oil I stay cautious, although the first snow storm could push on the northeast coast of America this year, the price level a bit. The euro is almost back to within its range of $ 1.20 to $ 1.30 and so worth buying. The last week of the year will be no large price gains. The annual result is already very impressive!
The U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter at 2.6%, only slightly more than the second projection indicated a month ago. Analysts had expected a revised growth rate of 3%. While stocks were higher than originally estimated , was the general demand (final sales) is somewhat lower. Year on year growth was at 3.2% (green arrow). In the second quarter of 2009 it had fallen by 4% (red arrow). The most severe recession (red shading) in over 70 years ended in mid-2009: be expanding the U.S. economy (blue shading). The danger of renewed recession is not in the near future. The growth will be in 2010 at the 3% mark. A similar result is possible in 2011.
corporate profits in the third quarter with $ 1,416 billion, slightly weaker than estimated a month ago, but this remains a record level (green arrow). Compared with the previous year, this represents an improvement of over 27% incl in the second Quarter, the increase was still nearly 39%. In early 2009 the profits of 50% (red arrow) were dropped before the subsequent recovery began. U.S. companies currently show the highest cash position in history.
The American consumer has for over a year (blue shading) spending more money. Despite the high unemployment rate of almost 10% of the atmosphere has improved in the population. The recession of 2008/2009 (red shading) is overcome. From the low end of 2008 (red arrow), when the real spending fell by over 2% on last year, the increase is now around 2.8% (green arrow). The American consumer thus contributes to the overall growth in again.
December was previously an excellent month for financials and construction stocks. Bank of America and KB Home - both titles have been recommended to me - submitted by 23 Around 20% in December and suggested that the S & P 500 significantly, although this index has a very good December so far result of almost seven percent increase. This confirms that the bull market is far from over.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline. The next blog will be available on Monday 3 January 2011.
Heiko Thieme
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