The last three trading days in November, "ruined" the monthly gain in Wall Street. However, made the first three days of December to November and totally up for that loss contributed significantly to the overall weekly winner. Thus the Christmas rally has officially begun. The Dax will test the 7,000 mark in the coming days and may exceed my previous annual target even a little. The Dow Jones will reach a new high of at least 11 500 and that this can increase a little.
The euro will be the only loser in the table above (red arrow) this year, although it can still be a slight improvement here. The annual winner is also now fixed (green arrow) and is the silver with an increase of over 70%. However, one could achieve a similar victory in a special high value within the past three weeks, the 12th at our Investment seminar in early November Speyer presented itself! More on the hotline.
The oil price is speculative buying pushed further upward. Here I am, however, only audience, I still expect a selling pressure in the coming months.
were the U.S. labor market data for November, with only 39 000 new jobs - they had expected 168 000 - well below expectations. Since June (yellow shading) were 55,000 jobs lost after were created in the first five months over a million jobs. The main reason for the original job increase (blue shading) based on a national survey, but only created temporary jobs. This was on my blog at that time already noted critical. Since the beginning of 951 000 jobs were created after the previous two years - 2008 and 2009 - a total of nearly 8.4 million jobs (red shading) were lost. The unemployment rate rose in November to 9.8% and for 19 months on the 9% mark, which is the longest period in 62 years, since it is here on official statistics. Taking account in these statistics all willing to work and able to work, so the real unemployment rate rises to over 17%! The unemployment problem in the next year, and the U.S. economy, even if it had the previous year since August 2009 (red arrow) in the official statistics to a significant recovery (green arrow). The actual picture looks different.
American industry and services have been three months (green shading), a slight improvement. This is, at least from the statistics in the region out to Chicago. After the strong recovery (blue arrow) since the beginning of 2009, the business barometer from May to August this year had cooled somewhat. In the coming months must show whether this new growth momentum to be sustainable, as I believe it. As long as this business index above the 50 mark to expand the U.S. industry.
The housing market during the third quarter (pink shading) substantially weakened. This shows the statistics of the 20 largest urban regions in the United States. Originally scheduled this month statistics, only 10 cities Regions in private housing. After house prices had fallen by the end of 2008 (red arrow) from the previous year by 20%, it came to the middle of this year (blue arrow) to a positive recovery trend, which is interrupted since then. Growth for the overall economy from the construction industry not to expect the time being.
Despite the still high unemployment rate, consumer confidence has improved since September and is now back above the 54.1 critical mark of 50, indicating growth acceleration. In February 2009 (red Arrow) had reached its low point, consumer confidence in the recession phase. Retail sales were from September 2008 to October 2009 (pink shading) on the previous year. For a year (blue shading), it goes up again in retail. The Christmas season, on 26 November began officially has improvements over the previous year. move
productivity and unit labor costs opposite direction. Increasing productivity (light blue arrows) results in falling unit labor costs, a percentage decline in Productivity (red arrows) increased labor costs. The largest percentage decline in unit labor costs (green arrows) occurs if the productivity has the highest percentage increase. Unit labor costs are rising the most (purple arrows), when productivity shows the lowest percentage improvement.
more recommendations and analysis on the daily hotline. The next blog will appear on Monday, 13 December.
Heiko Thieme
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