This week there were new highs for the year at many exchanges in the world. 2010 will go down in history as the stock market a good, albeit volatile year. The Dax has reached my full-year target of 7,000 and still has no signs of fatigue. The Dow Jones index is over 9% since the beginning of the beginning. Anyone who followed my advice in early July, when the Dow Jones 9700 had fallen by early Christmas shopping and I spoke in the summer, was even able to get twice as much. The residual potential end of the year as an addition to consider.
The silver is an increase of almost 70% of the undisputed winner of the year, followed by gold. Should be run after those prices are not. There will always be breaks, allow a purchase at a lower level. Patience is necessary for that purpose. During the oil I remain skeptical, despite many positive votes.
stands this week, the U.S. economy at the center, as many statistics published here via be. The upward trend in the stock markets can continue it.
The oil price could not exceed the $ 90 mark during the week successful. The economic demand is not strong enough to justify such a price level at the time. The Arctic cold snap in the Midwest over the weekend may again lead to an attempt at that level.
was in this year's trading range primarily in the oil between $ 70 and $ 83 per barrel (blue and red line). Only occasionally (red and blue circle), there was a short below the blue and crossing the red line. In the coming weeks I expect a test of the recent upward trend (rising green line), with the current price is just above the horizontal green line.
Who within the range of $ 70 to $ 83 active acting came at an increase of at least 60% since the beginning. Who had the courage to act even short positions in addition, was even a doubling, but is now sweating and has to bring prices down hope in the bandwidth.
was On the bond market in early October, with almost 2.4% for the 10-year government bonds lowest yields this year (red arrow). In early April, the yields have risen to almost 4% (green arrow). Only with a yield of 4.5% government bonds are attractive again. This level will be next year but achieved little. Therefore, government bonds remain provisionally uninteresting.
Obama currently has no good cards. Over 50% of the U.S. population today feel economically worse off than two years ago, shortly before he took office. For two-thirds of the respondents, the U.S. policy is moving in the wrong direction. Only 12% plan for Christmas this time spend more than last year. Obama and retailers are sweating on Christmas.
initial applications for unemployment benefits in December dropped to the level of August 2008 (green line). This indicates general pointed out that it in the U.S. labor market comes to a gradual relaxation. The question remains as to whether the unemployment rate will also fall term.
The unemployment rate remains a problem in the United States. Just to keep only the current level of 9.8%, need each month 150,000 new jobs will be created (white line). In the past 20 years there was only once a month (green arrow, September 1997), where well over 400,000 new jobs were created. January 2009 (red arrow), assumed office of President Obama, was with more than 800,000 jobs lost in the worst by far month.
This table shows how difficult it will be for President Obama, reduce unemployment rates significantly until his re-election in two years. To get to 5% from 9.8% currently, would each month 400,000 new jobs. This is impossible from a historical perspective. With 200,000 new jobs a month it takes a full 12 years to get to the 5% mark, which means full employment. Obama faces a huge challenge in the next two years. With the labor market, he can not win his re-election.
private incomes in the United States from 1979 to 2007 (recent data are not yet before) developed significantly different. The bottom fifth (dark blue line) of households has seen a net increase in income from a modest 16%. Even the middle class (light blue line) may be an increase of 25% in 28 years hardly satisfied. The situation is different in the top fifth. There was almost a doubling. Stunningly, however, the improvement of over 280% in the top 1% of households. This discrepancy in income development represents America to a crucial test. The gap between rich and poor is too large. However, overlooked in these statistics that there is at the top earners to frequent change. The founders of Google and Facebook, for example, had 15 years ago no assets and were even partially in its infancy. Now they are among the billionaires.
The mood among U.S. consumers has improved again since two months after it first to a was four months of stagnation (red shading) arrived. The present level was in the past three years exceeded a few times (green line). The lows during that period were seen in mid-2008 to February 2009 (three red arrows). A rising consumer sentiment is good for general economic development.
Further comments and recommendations on the hotline, which has existed for 24 years.
Heiko Thieme
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